Iran is too close to china to make any real issue. USA can stop shooting themselves in the feet at any time and redirect to Taiwan.
If China wanted USA tied up, theyd get south america or cuba problems, forces away from China.
If China wanted USA tied up, theyd get south america or cuba problems, forces away from China.
South/Central America has no significant military opponents, most especially none that will consume large quantities of exquisite armaments. It would mostly consume Army resources in COIN, which they are extremely experienced with from Afghanistan.
It's actually mystifying that Trump started the beef with Iran, when he could have just invaded Cuba and had an easy win. The Israeli factor of course, truly America's greatest weakness.
The fertilizer crunch and food scarcity too.
It's wild to me how oblivious ostensibly intelligent people on this site regularly manage to be.
The world still produces enough fertiliser, but prices will rise significantly. The biggest producers (China, India, USA) also consume most of their supply, and China and India get their methane from elsewhere or from coal. Russia is a leading exporter, so they could easily tighten the screws now, leading to further economic shocks. Big importers will feel a crunch [2] and this will leader to significant crop price increases.[3]
[1] https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/02/21/federal-governm...
[2] https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/yea...
[3] https://farmonaut.com/mining/largest-urea-producers-2026-glo...
But America's actions will not be forgotten.