Why Stocks Keep Going Up

theatlantic.com

5 points·paulpauper··3 comments

stocks go up because firms use the same algorithmic trading formulas. its very similar to how gas stations have the price sign out front to signal to nearby gas stations price fixing to engage in. we see swings of 800 points like its normal now because everyone is just on the same page even without insider trading lunches.

This is a rather vacuous piece, and for anyone looking to avoid wasting time, the stated reason is: "corporate profits keep going up."

I think the byline is a bit of a disingenuous sleight-of-hand: "The boom is not as untethered from reality as it may look" presupposes a majority view that the stock market "is untethered from reality," but whether or not that's an accurate read of prevailing sentiment, it subtly shifts focus away from what most people ought to understand: profits of the largest corporations are now mostly untethered from the financial health of individual citizens.

I've been seeing more and more of this type of underhanded writing from billionaire-owned media outlets lately (the number of which is growing on a nearly daily basis).

As a quick-and-dirty measure of corporate profits, the S&P 500 P/E ratio is at 33 and rising. A "good" number is more like 15-20. Historically, the market has crashed whenever the number gets in this range.

It's far from a perfect measure, but it does suggest that the market is untethered from reality. Profits just aren't going up fast enough to justify the increase in stock prices.

A deeper dive would try to untangle some of the more obviously egregious prices, especially in the AI space, where expenses are high and profits are nonexistent.

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