> As far as I know Anthropic is really the only one that's compute-bound.

I use gemini models daily. Jetbrains tells me when they are overloaded and switches to alternative (usually to openai which turns everything to shit). I'd say happens about fortnightly.

It's a good litmus and forecaster for AI demand and I wish we had more visibility.

Google, Microsoft, and Amazon's business model include selling compute - SpaceX, not so much.

Amazon is a compute specialist, their competitive advantage is in the compute business. And conversely they're not really trying to play in the AI business, so it's not at all suspicious that they don't want to use all their compute themselves.

I am worried about Google and Microsoft, yes.