> Apple not going to risk actual mainline iPhone SoC on Intel any time soon
Not to mention that Intel does not and will not any time in the next decade have the capacity for a product of that quantity.
Not to mention that Intel does not and will not any time in the next decade have the capacity for a product of that quantity.
There was a recent interview with Dylan Patel and he explained it pretty well.
Basically, there are tiers of risks and how "AGI pilled" each tier is. The bottlenecks and supply constraints get worse and worse as you down down the tiers.
Tier 1: OpenAI/Anthropic - extremely AGI pilled and think it's a sure thing. They want all layers underneath to prepare to make as many chips as possible and go all in.
Tier 2: Nvidia/AMD/Broadcom - very bullish but doesn't think AGI is a sure thing
Tier 3: TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel, Sandisk, Micron - bullish but if they're wrong and overbuild, they can actually go bankrupt. Each fab can cost tens of billions. An N2 fab is estimated to be $30b each.
Tier 4: Every supplier to T3 such as ASML, Applied Materials, other fab machines and suppliers - Less bullish, may even see this as just a super cycle rather than a permanent increase in demand so they're less inclined to take too many risks to scale up