Seeing both OpenAI and SpaceX trying to yeet themselves into public markets as fast as possible I've got to wonder if the music is slowing. There's a neat rocket company with a satellite business in here somewhere, but it's massively over-shadowed by totally underwater social media site and a failed AI experiment, both of which have been bailed out. I think the best thing you can say is that atleast we aren't aware of any other massively unprofitable bad bets Musk has made that he's going to need to bail out soon.

In some ways this looks like Meta. Meta throws off a tonne of money with it's ad business, but you have to discount it because Zuck has control and an attitude that it's his toy. So you have to discount the ad revenue business because there's a good chance that Zuck just pisses it up the wall. The difference here is you've got a speculative idea that SpaceX might eventually become a massive revenue driver, but Musk is already pissing the money up the wall.

I get why this makes sense for Musk - get SpaceX public, use the stock to merge with Tesla, it gets all his companies under 1 roof and gives him enough voting rights to do whatever the hell he likes. It makes sense for SpaceX early shareholers - they need liquidity.

I do not know what sense it makes for any investor. The absolute best you can argue is it's going to be a meme stock.