In modern CPUs a mispredicted branch is much more expensive than a memory write.

The unsaid assumption is that the array is filled with random values between 0 and 1000, so the "if" condition has a 50% of chances to be true. The branch is mispredicted 50% of times.

Of course this trick won't work when the statement protected by "if" is a more complex and costly action, or one that can't be undone (in the example, note that when the counter is not incremented, the value written to memory will be overwritten in the next cycle, so it's "undone" in a certain way).