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Pretty small sample size here, but it's hard to avoid the conclusion that DeepSeek and friends will start to put some serious downward pressure on frontier lab token pricing.

Hopefully this dynamic continues long enough to make local/private inference the leading solution for coding.

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It seems frontier, on the balance, would rather lose that segment of he market than lower the API price. They are getting the bag in the enterprise segment, those clients aren't ditching them for DeepSeek.

As for other segments, high API pricing gets people to switch to the subscriptions instead which is stickier than the API.

I've been hearing that Anthropic want all major AI providers to stop developing front tier models for a year for safety reasons. The real reason is they need time to get there models cheaper because of the DeepSeek threat or local llms or other even cheaper providers.

Seems like a ridiculous request - how can they ensure China will stop developing frontier models?

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