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Comment by fraserphysics | Hacker News Reader

For a long time I've been reading that the closure of Hormuz is going to constrain consumption soon. I understand the economic theory that reducing supply of an inelastic commodity greatly increases the price. The article says that inventories have insulated us from high prices so far. I am surprised by how large and effective those inventories have been. And I am surprised that futures prices are not higher. Can anyone here suggest explanations?

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It is almost entirely explained by China cutting imports significantly. They are running down their inventory waiting for prices to drop again. Consumption was previously constrainted in much of Asia, for example 4 day work weeks etc. The US has also lowered their strategic petroleum reserve to new lows.

If, hypothetically, the war ended tomorrow, then we could resume Business As Usual and slowly start rebuilding reserves. The Powers That Be (governments, oil corporations, etc.) have a vested interest in this: while a price spike ostensibly makes money for the oil corporations, it also drives people to invest in green energy, buy electric cars, or make lifestyle changes that reduce long-term consumption. Meanwhile, the politicians benefit from the illusion that everything is under control.

There are still enough reserves to maintain this illusion AND do a fairly orderly "jack up prices, drive down demand" transition if and when it proves necessary.

TL;DR: The whole point of these reserves is to provide this sort of stability

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