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> The logic is that the markets will almost certainly go up

The markets go up because people buy expecting that the markets will go up, which causes sellers to increase their price because they expect people will pay more because of FOMO, which people still buy because they expect the market to go up further.

The snake somehow keeps eating its tail.

Institutional investors get to trade outside of hours that most ordinary people can't; presuming that this is net positive for markets, they will already be up when the bell rings.

> maybe the upside is worth the risk

The upside is worth the risk if you can stand to lose $6k without it hurting too much. If you can't, then it isn't.