> Many made the same prediction about Twitter, and it seems to be more or less the same or higher activity than before

Where are you getting that? There's not a single piece of data out there that will tell you Twitter has increased in users. Not only have they visibly dropped in users, but it's becoming increasingly clear the site is Astroturfed with bots.

The choice is not Twitter or Bluesky. Most people moved on to TikTok. I don't know a single person who uses Twitter.