The general trend I observe is that the "shelf lives" of large language models are really short. It costs $1-10 billion to train cutting-edge models at the moment, and they only really last 6 months at best.
There seems to be very little brand loyalty too. Whenever a shiny new thing comes out, people just switch over, which implies that they constantly need to fight the time decay.
And there are three internal players chasing the same goal at the moment (OpenAI, Anthropic and Google), and two others (Deepseek and Alibaba/Qwen). What will prevent them from cutting the price floor each other?
Looking from a different angle: Microsoft has been able to maintain its monopoly because it was/is a huge pain for companies to switch the operating system, but do LLMs have that stickiness?