> What's the over/under on apple spinning up their own fabs for their own needs in the consumer market?

Darn close to 0%. They generally go after multiple manufacturers for a part rather than trying to become a manufacturer themselves.

They are trying their decades-old playbook of funding creation of new factories. The problem is the manufacturers are already neck deep in trying to expand out capacity, and the demand/price increases likely weakens both of Apple's negotiating factors (guaranteed sales and a source of capital to build out the facility).