Also there’s no incentive to fight. They already have one of the best models. Mythos remains a trump card when a competitor releases an even better model.
The government has arbitrary commandeered their business.
This could ruin Anthropic.
They are walking a tight rope with respect to revenues, hype, IPO.
If this kills their hyper growth prospects, it could kill the IPO.
If there's a serious change the gov. is out of line, the judges could put a stay and possibly throw this out.
There may however be enough of a case, in which there's maybe not much they can do.
Having a crazy person completely control your business is very, very bad.
If this technology has export restrictions, then Anthropic and OpenAI will go out of business.
Anthropic's revenues are already 66% international.
But being part of a gov industrial entity would be hard, unless it had 'all the right ingredients'.
Like the modern version of NASA? It's hard to imagine under this administration. But maybe it's plausible with a different mindset.
Also worth remembering NASA exists to counter Sputnick, we think of it as 'space, exploration, science' but it has a 'cold war' underpinning.
'Being nationalized' is 'Going out of business' - in this context.
The US will not pay market prices that investors would want - and - everyone working there would leave.
Even if they did not - the fuel required to keep it going would not be provided.
US Gov is not geared to lead an institution like that.
It would evaporate
I really hope the controls are relaxed, but at some arbitrary levels it’s expected that all countries will apply export controls.
Any number of materials and technology can be used for nefarious purposes.
'Security' is real concern, I'm not denying that, it's not unreasonable for gov. to be paying attention or to take some steps - but it can obviously bee too heavy-handed as well.
I'm not saying Anthropic is a defense contractor, I'm just saying once something is export controlled, the whole dynamic changes and there's no difference between them and a defense contractor.
The Murican propaganda machine keeps turnin.
No, they will not.
Where do all these people come from?
Bond yields are already rising on sovereign debt, if the government resorts to 'printing money', rates will rise materially, debt payments become unsustainable and the economy would crash in a worse way than 'the Great Recession' and it's hard to understand what woudl become of that.
In 1929 the US was not 'global reserve' meaning there was not all that extra leverage in the system.
The US 'hooked' on cheap debt, aka the rest of the world buying USD.
Kind of like leveraged speculation - it has upsides, but the downside is harder.
But that's even before the fact that 'nationalization of Anthropic' would lead to it's instant evaporation.
Have a look at what's going on with the DOJ right now, it's being completely corrupted, 'banana republic' style.
People would be reluctant to have such a thing in 'gov' in normal times, but right now ... things are extremely bad.