Comment by Alpha3031 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by Alpha3031 | Hacker News Reader

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> Many scientists consider +1.5℃ to have been reliably and consistently breached at some point in the very early 2010s.

Do you have a source for that? The 20 year average (not minimum) is considered reasonable to provide an estimate the GWL 10 years ago and is simple to calculate but obviously we'd only have the data going up to 2015 if using those.

I don't think there are any, even current-year GWL indicators that have us at close to +2℃ above the standard 1850-1900 reference. LOESS is probably the simplest one (the others are usually 10 years of observations + 10 years of projections) and that was ~1.31 [1.16 — 1.42] in 2023 according to https://climate.metoffice.cloud/current_warming.html and 1.44 ± 0.09 °C for 2025 according to https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2025...

While I do not know directly about what happens in distant places on Earth, where I live in Europe there are about 15 years since the last time when I used my winter clothes and my winter boots.

When I was young, where I live there was permanent snow cover from early December until late March.

All the historical sources from hundreds of years ago mention similarly heavy winters.

Now there is more than a decade since there was any snow that lasted more than a day before melting.

So I find it strange when there are people who are still skeptical about the reality of climate warming.

+1.4 °C on average is pretty serious warming, I don't know how you got the impression I was "skeptical about the reality of climate warming". I'm even willing to believe that AR6 WGI is more conservative than it should be on GMST and underestimating current levels, seeing as they have previously underestimated things like sea level rise, but I don't think I am out of line for actually asking to see those alternate estimates which put us potentially above +2 °C from the preindustrial reference before accepting such a conclusion.

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