I'm not going to predict the moment, because I thought the dotcom bubble would pop back in 1999. I could see how overvalued things were, what I couldn't predict was how long the market would remain irrational.
I think most people throwing shade are doing so of jealousy rather than well thought arguement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underoccupied_developments_in_...
Claims like 'it will collapse someday' are actually unfalsifiable. Predictions that specify a quarter, on the other hand, are not. This is exactly why I think so-called pundits are useless. They repeat unfalsifiable claims over and over, and when it finally happens later, they say 'I told you so.' How ridiculous is that? I can make that kind of claim too. 'The US will collapse.' Sure, it will. But who knows if it'll even exist in a thousand years? So honestly, if there's no timeframe, it's meaningless.
But most of what gets posted on HN is exactly this kind of unfalsifiable punditry. I'd rather write a new scenario. A scenario where AI succeeds, we're all classified as API tenant farmers, only a few influencers chosen by OpenAI and Anthropic survive, most programming companies shrink, and a new mega-tech emerges. That would be more fun to write.