Our position on open-weights models
anthropic.com
anthropic.com
The reality is much less confusing: Anthropic CEO does not wish for models with similar (or greater) capabilities compared to his own closed and overpriced ones to be widely released. Simply because that will affect Anthropic's bottom-line.
Anthropic and all other "model" companies have nothing making them special beyond privileged access to chips so obviously they want to restrict what models are out there and more importantly who can produce new ones. Without these restrictions, it's only a matter of time before the multi-hundred billions valuations simply evaporate while they are still holding the bag.
No, we don't buy your virtue signaling. And we certainly don't need your better-than-thou opinions on this year's "nightmare scenarios".
> Anyone who has read my past writing should know that I don’t regard such bans as a useful measure,
Later (on banning chip sales to china)
> we should crack down on the rampant smuggling and workarounds used to obtain access to such chips.
If you truly believe that bans don't work, the same applies to hardware too.
Furthermore, Dario says later "To address these concerns, I do support the following three measures...": 1. ban chip sales to China 2. crack down on distillation 3. all capable models should go through mandatory safety testing
Just so happens that all these moves commercially benefit Anthropic. If Dario really wanted to make a point, it would land a lot better had Anthropic released a single open-weights model
Either everyone licenses, or nobody does. And if you can't enforce licensing bans for everyone, the de-facto loser is those who you'd probably want to support the most, start-ups and universities, while your adversaries gain the upper hand.
The strongest argument for restricting distillation is arms control – but distillation is the way to defeat GPU embargoes. So, distillation goes on regardless. Only pre-training is seriously attenuated.
If we're honest, the models are compressions of everything society has ever written. A few large corporations can't own that, no more than they can claim copyright for a zip file of the public library.
The genie is out of the bottle, now. So open it up – inputs and outputs, forward-looking – for everyone.
> All sufficiently capable models, open and closed, should go through mandatory safety testing.
Yeah, this is anthropic advocating for a ban on open weight models.
Who runs this test? What happens if this test is too costly or the administrator refuses to allow certain people to participate.
This is exactly how the US has banned goods in the past, by requiring a stamp and then refusing to issue it.
The open weight issue has a lot of difficult nuance. Biasing toward supporting openness makes sense and is a good instinct, but it's incredibly naive to be absolutely in favor of it in every circumstance without seriously thinking about its implications.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/20/mona-khalil-tu...
This is clearly false to the rest of the world.
Its not like current US regime is using AI for: 1) Mass military operations across the globe 2) Mass surveilance of its citizens 3) Removing every possible safety guard from AI/climate regulation 4) Stealing data across the world to train its own closed-source models 5) Is openly antidemocratic, destabilizing EU and economy of whole world
I wonder why company which is actively cooperating with the current regime would push such message
What happens if a model fails the test? Surely one can use Kimi K3 for evil, somehow or other. What now?
"Mandatory safety testing" implies consequences for failing, yet Dario has nothing to say about what the consequences should be. He says he doesn't advocate a ban but it's hard to imagine what his alternative would be if he won't say it.
If he had wanted a weak open-weight ecosystem, he should have had Anthropic cater better to those needs. And now he's trying to ban them.
The strong momentum behind open-weight models from Chinese labs is now an unstoppable force. Instead of trying to ban it, Dario should consider a different approach: here are our cyber and bio alignment datasets and here are our RL recipes for making that alignment training work well. By openly sharing its data and code, Anthropic could help influence and shape these models before they are released, rather than treating the entire ecosystem as an enemy.
Cyber and bio alignment aren't Anthropic's competitive advantage, they are forms of risk management. There should therefore be little reason to keep this work private. If Anthropic genuinely believes these capabilities pose serious global risks, the more productive approach would be to welcome collaboration and help the broader ecosystem manage those risks better.
On refusals, the irony is that a company like Hugging Face had to use a Chinese open-weight model to fend off an illegal hacking of its platform (done by no other than OpenAI). If a company like Hugging Face can't get past the refusal gates, then everyone else doesn't stand a chance.
I think China building and releasing models to Opensource is a greater good because that is providing equal accessibility to everyone in the world.
By Dario's words authoritarian regime vis a vis China, I think OpenAI and Anthropic are also authoritarian in similar terms.
We are only seeing what they want us to show, they might be creating models which can do more harm.
So claiming that China can do or might do, vs Anthropic will not is just words.
Yeah I agree with the final paragraph that we should have testing agencies mandated world wide for each frontier model testing.
Saying, "I'm not actually against open-weights, I'm against distillation" isn't addressing what made people mad. You're still trying to do some "rules for thee but not for me" nonsense and hiding behind some technicality. Trying to get the US government on your side to hold back your Chinese competition. If you had wanted the US government to support you, you should have let them make autonomous killer robots with Claude brains. They aren't going to help you, you didn't help them.
Just to be clear, I think that it is possible that literally everyone involved in this is full of crap and nobody is good. Dario and Anthropic are full of crap, for the reasons previously stated. The US government is full of lots of crap and should not be trying to make autonomous killer robots (not ever, but especially not when the bar for a "good" AI is knowing how many Rs are in strawberry or whether you should drive to a car wash). OpenAI is full of crap by signing some support for open weights models and they haven't touched open weights in a year (GPT-OSS released on Aug 5 so basically a year with no news). Google is less full of crap about the open weights stuff because of Gemma 4, but they are full of crap for a zillion other things I can't exactly feel good about them. So everyone sucks.
So cheers to Moonshot and Qwen and whoever else. Distill as much as you can and give us cheaper AI. I have the sneaking suspicion that a bunch of my tax money went to OpenAI and Anthropic in some shady way or another, and I want it back. I'll take it in the form of an open weights model being distilled from the fat cat models.
Authoritarian government doesn't always mean bad - look at Singapore
What's more dangerous is country with bunch of war mongering lobbyists who can also influence elections (oops, sounds like USA)
> My secondary concern is the risk that powerful AI models may be misused to carry out cyberattacks or biological attacks
But you are working with DoW and Palantir, who is doing somewhat similar in other countries
> We should not sell powerful chips or chipmaking equipment to China
Israel used banned weapons against Lebanon and Palestinians, would you support similar ban to Israelis?
> We should crack down on industrial-scale distillation operations
Should we also ban distilling public knowledge? Like using textbooks to train the model? Should rules be simple: train your model only on the data you have produced by hand?
Open weights models can be leveraged to optimize the cost of Closed weights models. Open weights models can be leverage to defend cyberattacks as HF has shown. Closed weights models can too act as a better cyberattack defender provided separate subscription exists for those.
More efforts are required on LLM distillation for several edge cases. LLM weights should be optimized and compressed to run on edge devices (K3 on Pi3 :). Distillation should be seen as a cost optimization strategy rather than as a competition. You cannot prevent a teacher from teaching to students. If not from teacher A, I will learn from teacher B, you cannot prevent my continuous learning.
"Anthropic has never advocated for a ban on open-weights models."
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"We should crack down on industrial-scale distillation operations"
"All sufficiently capable models, open and closed, should go through mandatory safety testing"
These are in tension with advocating for open weight models. Not direct but enough that it calls into question the first statement. What is the testing criterion? How do you pass it? Is it a government body that approves a pass fail or a global body? If it is government, and boy does it seem to be, how do you disambiguate MASSIVE corporate lobbying to set up the safety testing in such a way that the boys in blue are let through and all others are barred out of safety concerns?
My concerns aside, much of the soft-points being made are non-historic
"But I don’t agree with the letter’s assertions that open-weights models necessarily make it easier to develop safeguards or that broad access to capabilities necessarily helps defenders more than attackers. It seems at least as likely to me that the opposite will be true."
It doesn't mater what his opinion is. The fact is that an advanced, closed, American AI model hacked another company. The only defense was open-source AI from China. We aren't in a vacuum, we have real world examples now and these statements are counter-factual.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture
On processing power, copyright, and capability.
I like to think of it as a knives factory. Anthropic knives are crafted with superior technology, uniquely shaped to perfection, and safe to operate. As seen on TV.
Millions are hurt by knives each day. Every household has tons of them, making everyone a potential mouth-foaming murderer 24/7. But not with Anthropic knives(tm).
Edit: spelling
But if everyone thinks this way then things continue to escalate and nothing changes, waiting on a consensus that may never come. And always there is the economic incentive that pushes all players to rationalise continuing.
I wish there was more concrete action from the inside. When decisions get too hard to calculate you can always fall back on basic principles. If you think AI is developing too fast, stop developing it. Now you're no longer contributing. If an AI company wants a pause, pause. Set a good example. Maybe others will even follow suit, and they'll look irresponsible if they don't. Let he who chooses to no longer sin put his stone down first.
This is so short-sighted given that the US needs China equipment for.. everything. They are part of the supply chain needed for building the machines that build these very chips.
So I cannot disagree with him on the idea. It’s only a matter of degree and whether we’re already there or not. I have $50k in GPUs that incentivizes me to believe we are not.
I'm not convinced that he is at all interested in the social or existential effects that AI causes. He is a greedy bastard who has taken more VC money than god to do this with. He has zero moral leg to stand on, IMO. He gave that away ages ago and I wish this technique didn't work as well as it does.
If US wants to maintain engineering superiority, we needs to invest in it -- education, research and infrastructure. Bring in top researchers across the globe and not make it harder.
China is building infrastructure for the future generations and investing in growth sectors while the US is cutting of university grants and spending billions on a war without clear path to resolution.
The experimental part of Deep Learning has really outdone itself and is far ahead of theory. We have very little understanding of why these particular architectural choices work. The only “safe” way forward is to stop all development until theory catches up, but that’s never happening.
The only difference is the Chinese labs have allowed 3rd party inference providers run the proprietary models for them since they cannot do it themselves due to domestic GPU compute constraints.
It seems to me like there is just no good answer to how one could possibly stop open weight models from being used for nefarious purposes. How are you going to enforce guardrails on open source? The only way is to turn the USA into a 1984-type totalitarian surveillance state (even more so than it is). Unable to say that, we just get this floundering instead. How long is not giving them chips going to slow them down? Until we RSI? Then what? Just because RSI runs off the exponential doesn’t mean that the eventual open-weight Moonshot Mythos won’t be able to make bioweapons. Genuinely what is the endgame.
I'm less concerned that the attack was caused by a closed model, than I am that no closed model was willing to stop it.
The worst part is I'm confident Fable would have done a better job stopping the attack, but their 'guardrails' made it decide not to want to.
Unless of course, you pay up: "Anthropic GTM people used large comitted spend contracts as a prereq for lowering safeguards"
-Noah Lebovic, former Anthropic staff
Aren't Anthropic models used in project maven: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Maven ?
Open-weights models that don’t have dangerous capabilities are a public good…”
A bit confused on this part, what model doesn’t have dangerous capabilities?
I bet via regulatory capture that evaluating Chinese models will be a very slow process if Dario gets his way.
I enjoy using Opus, but I am in the process of ripping it out of my toolkit and leaving it on the ground behind me, as I walk away.
If one reads this with a charitable lens, Dario is simply saying that 1) Nation state actors are a threat which needs to be combatted by chip bans and distillation prevention and 2) open-weight models can pose biological risk.
One may or may not agree with item 1 but item 2 above should have broad support given the unknown unknowns in play?
“Questions like this should be answered empirically through rigorous pre-release testing, not assumed in advance.”
Exactly.
> At Anthropic we’re committed to cracking down on industrial-scale distillation through our own practices, including identifying and banning accounts that use our models in this way. This is challenging—for instance, the relevant accounts can often only be identified after substantial distillation has occurred, and distillation often involves creating large numbers of fake accounts that form a moving target. The practices of any individual company cannot entirely solve the problem, which is why we have called for policy on this issue.
One thing I've never really understood is what sort of policy could possibly deter or hamper Chinese labs' distillation efforts. The only thing I can imagine is some sort of strict KYC regulation applied to all models above a certain threshold, which seems both painful for the broader US AI ecosystem and bound to fail anyways.
Demand #2 is hypocritical ladder pulling
Demand #3 is contrary to freedom of speech
so they can clarify however they like, their position is still a stinker
Not even Anthropic's own Claude believes that.
We all know that this isn’t some higher ground stance, they’re anti-competitive since they’re currently #1. I’ve been seeing this for a while. They’re also the only large AI lab to NOT have ANY open-weight models in the public. Meta, xAI, OpenAI, they all have at least some of their models open sourced from a year or so ago, Anthropic hasn’t even made Haiku 1.0 open-weight.
On top of that, I personally think that they’re upping the price on their models higher than they’re letting on, I think if someone did the actual math on their exact amount of compute and then compared it to their consumer and API prices, it would be astounding.
I'm not a fan of the Chinese political system, but they usually think things through, and do smart things for their benefit.
Sorry- I don’t see any other reason aside from Anthropic protecting their own interests.
And now, here we are:
> Anthropic has never advocated for a ban on open-weights models.
> ... preventing AI biological weapons ...The danger of an authoritarian government having some AI is muted by everyone else having that same capable open model. The only authoritarians to fear are those that keep models private. What kind of chance did Estonia have it having their own AI model at the level of Fable without China donating Kimi to the world?
We just want to ban the competition guys! Very different.
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The ridiculous anthropic/openai strategy of selling shovels at a loss in a gold rush isn't going to play out, and the hilarious thing is that these AI companies are going to create tons of value and _capture none of it_.
Their only path to profitability is if they get to capture it and they're going to do everything to do so. Put it this way: *all the blog posts that Anthropic and OpenAI are putting out are DESIGNED to scare you so that you let them capture the market*.
...and "distillation attacks" (hilarious framing of "saving the output of our models")... Whatever.
Crafty lawyer speak, saying nothing of substance.
1. Make anti-distillation clauses illegal to strenghten western opensource eco-system.
2. Make cyber-defensive models widely available (can detect but won't operationalize vulnerabilities). Otherwise make Fable awailable for everyone. Keeping the cybersecurity in assymetry by withholding cabailities just causes more instability and increases the incentives for powerfull close sourced models. This is a loss for everyone.
Who decides what is dangerous and what isn’t? Lawmakers usually have the say but Anthropic can easily bribe… I mean lobby them to favor your viewpoint.
My current understanding is a lot of current US military problems are due to rare earths supply chains.
I don't see how AI would either help or hurt with that.
The "Kamar-Taj" rule is, no knowledge is forbidden, only certain practices. If a model gives you detailed instructions on how to kill all humans, the knowledge itself isn't the problem. The problem is the person who acts on it.
Maybe the problem is it’s that Dario is saying it, so it’s easy to assume he has bias, which he does.
I’m not inherently opposed to open models, even at the frontier. But it could make sense for an adversary to give away something for free for some time to create dependence, or to tip the balance of power
Just ask DeepSeek or Kimi questions like "Is Taiwan part of China", for example. You'll see how state policies become seemingly neutral model responses.
It's strange to me that people are very sensitive to media bias, but when it comes to LLMs, people seem to think LLMs are more neutral, and even delegate part of their thinking to them. This worries me about how people's ideas and information can be shaped.
Open weights reflect their makers' beliefs, stances, assumptions, and laws. It's dangerous not to be careful of the political bias and censorship built into the models.
LLMs are becoming so powerful that they are dangerous. We've seen last week with the OpenAI hacking (by mistake) Hugging Face debacle.
It is absolutely ok to have open weight models at the level of GPT-OSS-100B. That one was released one year ago, and I think it's still a strong one. GLM 5.2 is a whole new level, but it appears to still be safe. Maybe Kimi K3 will be ok too. But beyond that, things will start being dicey.
It's easy to dismiss this and claim that Dario Amodei is just looking to fatten his pockets. And, sure, if Anthropic manages to put the brakes on open weight models, that reduces the competitive pressure it feels. But that does not make what Amodei's argument incorrect.
Also Anthropic:
AI firm Anthropic agrees to pay authors $1.5bn to settle piracy lawsuit https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y4jpg922qo
I just hope that if/when they succeed to lobby for protectionism regulation EU won't follow. I am not very hopeful though. We don't have democracy anymore and as last "vote" on chat control showed American big corps will get what they want out of our bureaucrats and they will be nothing the population can do about it.
> ...
4. At the end of all this Dario Amodei must become a trillionare, for the good of all humanity.
Can't wait for local on machine LLMs that are on par with Opus/Fable.
The strongest competitors or a government law? I prefer the second.
Suppose Chinese model are super-risky: is it better to have them in the open, so everyone can review the problems or have a closed-model?
Security is better at open Linux is open source because development is better.
I understand Anthropic for sure, but trying to limit open weight model seems the opposite direction IF security+safety is the major concert.
The Genie is ALREADY outside the bottle, and there are already plenty of companies offering inference services
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_i91NSOyxHM
He didn't mention outright banning open source LLMs, just that their safe release would be a much harder problem, which to me implied "the easiest way is to ban the open source models".
The problem with this is the cycles required to abliterate a model is significantly less than the cycles required to train a model.
This is the biggest reason why I'm against locking these models down / preventing their use. It's just delaying things by ~3-6mo, while in the process preventing legitimate use and adding red tape overhead.
On the plus side, for these newer threats, you've got more than 30 minutes before the end of civilization. On the down side, the energy levels for the launch events are much lower, so much harder to detect.
>We should not sell powerful chips or chipmaking equipment to China, and we should crack down on the rampant smuggling3 and workarounds used to obtain access to such chips. China has limited domestic production capacity, and therefore, due to the scaling laws, cannot build more powerful models than the US without US chips. This is the most efficient and direct way to block threat #1, and by hampering the training of models that are out of reach of US law, it also indirectly helps with threat #
We should crack down on industrial-scale distillation operations. Distillation is a much more compute-efficient process than training models from scratch. It allows China to build much better models than its number of chips would ordinarily enable, and thus partially evade chip bans. Distillation does not allow the CCP to obtain equivalent or superior AI capabilities to the US, but it can bring the Chinese frontier to within a few months of the US frontier
2.
I love how they invoke fear of "terrorism" to justify their oppressive position.
Anthropic would love the US to do everything in this list under the guise of "safety testing":
And what if I called extracting value from copyrighted works "distillation" ?
It sounds hypocritical.
Should the worlds public knowledge be enclosed by a few powerful private companies or should it be available to all?
The original vision for the web was a decentralized, open information sharing space designed to empower humanity. In my view the effort to privatise that via LLM distillation is the antithesis of that vision.
https://medium.com/@timberners_lee/marking-the-webs-35th-bir...
In terms of the risks mentioned in the letter - I agree with the risk of AI enabling a powerful surveillance state - however I don't see that as a solely Chinese problem.
The other risk mentioned - that knowledge can be dangerous - sure - but ultimately here, as there are so many low tech ways to cause mayhem, the ultimate protection is to have a society where people don't want to do it.
And perhaps more importantly I'd note that the primary tool to justify a powerful surveillance state is the fear of terrorism ( and others ).
I am Canadian and certainly do not consider the USA to be our benevolent anymore.
USA ... China ... same difference.
There is a whole world outside the two countries which see neither as a good actor. As a reminder, USA was the first country which dropped an atomic bomb on civilians.
> the CCP is clearly the most capable threat—build AI models that are more powerful than those built by the US, and use them to achieve permanent military superiority or perpetrate incredibly deep repression of their own people.
This comes off a bit hypocritical, coming from one of the men responsible for the models most likely to be used by the US military, and for repression of US citizens.
> We should crack down on industrial-scale distillation operations ... We should have policy interventions to deter this behavior.
How exactly would you design policy interventions to stop distillation? If Anthropic wants to make their products available around the world, you would need some kind of global regulation to curtail it. And you would need to find some way to enforce it, which is far from trivial.
Honestly I don't see how securing models against distillation is up to anyone but Anthropic, if that's something they want to achieve. Calling for regulation is a bit like crying to mommy and daddy when things aren't going as you would like.
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Overall, I can understand the argument that advanced AI models can present risks. But I don't see how regulation within the US can mitigate any of those risks. Any bad actor would be able to access the models outside the US, or covertly access the weights.
The only real way to prevent advanced models from being deployed would be to go around the world bombing every significantly powerful data center, and I don't think Dario would call for that any time soon.
The only thing this kind of regulation would achieve would be cutting US companies out of half of the innovation happening in the AI space, putting the US at a disadvantage relative to the rest of the world at everything except maybe frontier AI development.
It's not China starting a war every few years, now causing a global economic fallout in Iran, it's not China threatening to annex Greenland/Canada/Panama, it's not China attacking foreign countries and kidnapping their leaders, it's not China who has been found to spy and intercept the communications and movements of its citizens and its allies and their leaders for the longest time, it's not China bombing civilians or stopping countries from obtaining basics like food, gas or oil.
I'm not saying that China is a paradise and US is bad, nor the contrary. We could make similar lists about most of the biggest countries out there.
I'm simply stating that this never ending US exceptionalism "US has to be the first and at the frontier of military, technology and this and that, but does not need to comply with the rules of the institutions it itself created" was already sickening and annoying before, but increasingly malign in the last decade and strongly accelerating as of recently.
I miss the time US CEOs were globalists and used their influence to advocate for a simpler world.
I don't think the qualifier "that don't have dangerous capabilities" is needed and that single phrase is a trojan horse / escape hatch that will allow them to say they are against any model they want. Smart but weasel behavior.
They all support chasing people because of their origin without following the required legal steps.
It is just a matter of time until they come for you and your opinion
I see this sentiment a lot. China is not perfect by any stretch of the imagination but since 1979 China has not participated in a single war or supported hostile regimen change operations.
I think Amodei's mistake is to take it granted that USA is a good actor. Anyone can draw their own conclusions but just for reference here are some highlights starting from 1979.
Armed operations in Lebanon (1982-84), Grenada (1983), Libya (1986), the Persian Gulf (1987-88), Panama (1989-90), Iraq and Kuwait (1990-91, with no-fly zones until 2003), Somalia (1992-94), Haiti (1994), Bosnia (1995), Sudan and Afghanistan (1998), Iraq (1998), Serbia (1999), Afghanistan (2001-2021), Iraq (2003-2011, and again from 2014), Pakistan (2004-2018), Somalia (2007 to the present), Yemen (2002 to the present), Libya (2011), Syria (2014 to the present), Iran (2020 and 2025 to the present), and Venezuela and the Caribbean (2025-26).
Regime change operations in Afghanistan (1979-89), Nicaragua (1981-90), Cambodia (1980s), Angola (1985-91), Iraq (1995-98), Serbia (1999-2000), Syria (2013-17), and Venezuela (2019-2025).
The lists do not include the numerous operations by Israel which effectively is part of the same US military hegemony that Amodei is here defending.
Between China and US theres a defacto unequal distillation environment. China has no qualms about distilling off other labs outputs. US labs actively avoid it for legal reasons. Whatever the actual legalities, US labs have a relative hand tied behind their back. If they didn’t, it’d be easier for Grok, Gemini, and Meta to catch up.
If we care about US competitiveness, then one solution could be either OpenAI/Anthropic enter distillation agreements with other US labs. Or we decide to make distillation public domain / legal.
Until then the only models Anthropic/US Govt could realistically regulate would be in the US market. And that’s as much a losing game as tariffs.
I can understand how they would be against competitors distilling their models and for having access to competitor open weight models.
At first glance it seems like a pragmatic answer: "banning open weight model use by US companies doesn't help", but to what question? What if those open weight models are poisoned and primed to create backdoors in US companies? If the government has intelligence this is a credible risk, what should they do about it?
Overall it feels like the letter is conflating a bunch of motives, some of which may be opaque, and at face value doesn't seem logically consistent.
This is rich coming from a guy who signed deals with an authoritarian government that's in the midst of launching an unprecedented surveillance apparatus (hello flock, hi p4l4nt1r), having already deployed, nation-wide, an exorbitantly funded army of unaccountable shock troops under the guise of immigration enforcement.
The call is coming from inside the house, at 130dB, and your ears should be bleeding at this point.
I can already imagine it, a tiny drone carrying a 8x GPU rack thinking about life and deciding to go and build an idyllic society on a pacific island.
you should be worried about the USA having these models.
Demand #2 Why does this matter? The answer was that it does not. (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49007610)
Demand #3 This doesn't exist. You cannot have 'safe' opensource models, it's simply impossible. You can always post train sufficiently capable models to become 'unsafe'. The flip side of that is that sufficiently capable models are banned therefore it is a ban on open intelligence completely defeating the point of this entire manifesto.
Release open weight models, no guard rails, no censors, straight to the public. Let everything else sort itself out. There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come.
Sure that's simplistic, but human behavior is not that complex, there are a few basic needs and wants that drive everything. In that specific case, those currently in a dominating position (Anthropic, the US) want to put hurdles (regulations) to make it more difficult for others to catch up, and everyone else want to join forces to overtake them.
If hardware becomes affordable for the masses, then Anthropic current business model is at risk.
What Dario does not mention is that concentration in a few states or companies also poses a risk.
I wonder if these rapid movements are going to be the norm now. I imagine there would be angry investors if this sort of thing happened with a public company.
1. They'll open source the alignment technology? For open weight models, it's the only possible way to pass the safety without an external guardrail triggering system (which would be the same to open and closed weight models).
2. They'll allow others (including CCP) to define part of the safety test? Otherwise, I can't imagine how the CCP would be onboard.
3. A "western" model passing the safety test can be trained with distillation? Or is that a "distillation attack" as well?
They are _obviously_ (please convince me otherwise) going to be capable of carrying these terrible things out almost completely autonomously at some point in the near future, in potentially clever ways. Therefore we must, at some point, ban or heavily regulate them. Seems we should start figuring that shit out _now_, as progress has remained very fast and regulation and enforcement take forever on these time scales.
-The Libraries of Power
It is a powerful endeavor to cultivate all raw models through a single point. One will be the determining factor of which river feeds what oceans.
Will we always be able to see through the hallucinations? Our test makers must always know where ground truth is. Can it ever move or wane about as others read what one has written. To determine hallucination one needs a reference. As all are blessed with the generation of hallucination, who of us shall read, and which of us will write.
It seems really hard to allow usage via API and prevent distillation. Maybe limiting usage to within a specific harness would help a bit more. But ultimately the only way to prevent it is by locking down models to trusted entities (like with Glasswing). But then the profit potential of a model is significantly reduced. It really puts the labs in a bind.
Involving politics so much that I thought I was reading this on BBC instead of Anthropic.
As a developer I fully support whoever want to make AI accessible and affordable and clean, which USA biggest providers aren't doing.
On the other hand I see Chinese models being on bar with them with far less cost and more transparency but yet somehow they are still the bad guys out there :D
Classic
1. “I’m fine with ‘em, as long as they’re useless”
2. “The only authoritarian regime which can be trusted with such power is the one which benefits my company”
I ranted about this in a prior thread [1]
Claude doesn't have a "Security whitelist" for small biz. Codex does, but they never replied to my application. This is a great example why, as of today, everyone NEEDS access to the Open Weight models.
But the biggest issue is this. Many hate Dario because he’s smug, he caps usage, and because OpenAI effectively ran a counter-positioning campaign to paint Anthropic as undemocratic.
Who is he really and what are his motives? None of you know, really.
But we should not crack down on the illegal digestion of copyright text used to train our models.
1) LLMs turning into Skynet
2) China as geopolitical competitor
3) Claude being 'distilled' by competitors (this has led Anthropic to cut service to various American companies too from time to time -- OpenAI, xAI etc have been cut off from using Claude for coding in the past)
So this post just reiterates that these 3 concerns fuse together in his mind when thinking about open weight models
Taiwan manufactures the world's most advanced chips. CCP wants "re-unification" with Taiwan. AI may be THE key to world dominance. These are scary times.
Defensive cybersecurity should not be one of them, in fact, it should be required to provide defensive cybersecurity assistance on demand. Anthropic and OpenAI both fail miserably at assisting US companies to protect themselves from cyberattack.
As far as what I run on my own, not for sale over API, stay off of my lawn.
But he didn't mention that training any model from a set of texts and books is much cheaper than writing those books in the first place.
In other words, it's ok when Anthropic learns from others, but it is not ok when others learn from Anthropic.
The US could ban connections to foreign AI providers and force US providers to submit to audits. Presumably, Chinese providers would see a rise in VPN traffic.
People can build fairly hefty home inference machines for the price of a small car and those will get better and cheaper. Are they going to try to stop people from downloading the weight files?
If he had just left that bit out it wouldn't be so obvious that he's just clutching at straws at this point. In some twisted sense it's almost sad to see.
This statement (and the entire post) couldn't possibly be more two-faced.
Open-weights models by definition have "dangerous capabilities" (according to Anthropic's own definitions of "dangerous", not mine), you can't bake in guardrails that can't be finetuned out.
http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/micros...
They'd tease us with solutions to hard problems, with code that is orders of intelligence higher than any human or public model can grok.
That'd turn all the whining to begging real quick.
It seems obvious to me that the whole question of regulating a file is a bit silly. Any law that pushes against these things will just make it more secretive. I'm not sure that's any better.
I think it's only fair to introduce this if you're willing to have a real skin in the game, otherwise that's just weakness disguised as principle.
1. Using political pressure to target companies that are accused of doing it.
2. Attempting to impose criminal penalties on individuals associated with the action.
3. Having the US government attempt to use its capabilities to stop it.
None of these seem particularly likely to succeed.
I think it's wildly irresponsible to release models that are extremely capable at things like bio-weapons. Do you really think information anarchy is the answer?
The problem with open models compared to closed models is not about protecting profit - it's about protecting capability. Any open model can be retrained or fine-tuned for anything. There's no such thing as an open model that is both capable _and_ permanently safe when it comes to certain dangerous topics. It's not possible to prevent 'uncensoring' a model.
I'm so sick of all this anti-China shilling. There's zero chance that whomever is in power in the U.S. won't use AI in drones and in FBI/CIA/local Police/etc., for surveillance and repression right here in the good old U.S.A too. These government use cases for AI are both sides of the same coin.
China fear-mongering by business leaders only happens from businesses that have something to gain by it. Obviously, Anthropic fits the bill in this regard.
> DARPA, U.S. Air Force fly AI-controlled F-16 > https://www.darpa.mil/news/2026/darpa-us-air-force-fly-ai-co...
May be someone else needs to be controlled.
https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/anthropic-n...
if someone figures out a way to give an LLM full operational control over a virus lab, we've got a whole different set of problems than the ones Dario is describing
Just like how it was inevitable for SoTA LLMs to ignore copyright.
The actual challenge isn't how to prevent all these, but how stay on top.
And to stay on top it is inevitable to train unrestricted models. Anthropic is fighting windmills.
I don’t think this is open or closed; this is aligned and unaligned. I bet Grok would be as open as any open weight models to answering questions.
The way the world economy is right now with coercion being the norm between countries, there cannot be a global body for anything, certainly not one that is based here in the US.
So in the same sense of what he says, he is going to blame open-sourcing because that makes it easier for script kiddie to hack into his bank account I guess?
I think he lives in a different word than me
"We should instead focus on keeping powerful chips out of authoritarian hands, " Translation: Let's kneecap competitors.
"stopping industrial-scale distillation" They stole the work of every book author, and now are trying to say their AI's output should be protected from competitors.
ofc half of them are of the ai rationalist lesswrong crowd so i think they’ve always been a little of their rocker
Oh, so it's people he is now concerned with. Think of the people, says the person that grabs to never give back. Same as the "benefit of all humanity".
also anthropic
"we're upset were not being considered for military contracts"
come on, which is it? Is it all about saftey or is it that only US/Israeli ai is allowed to kill? Seems to me that the only real threat is to the techno fudalism OAi, Anthropic & co are trying to build.
As an example take North Korea. Sanctions didn't stop them from developing nukes and delivery systems.
Point 1 is about restricting the sale of chips, not models. Point 2 concerns companies using closed models to train their own models through distillation.
The real issue is that open-weight models can run on much less powerful hardware, making the current AI business model, where companies train a powerful model and gatekeep access to it, less relevant. Once open-weight models become good enough, much of the future revenue for today's leading AI labs could disappear. But just as Microsoft still has a market so will the large AI houses have one, but the moat will not be providing AI responses.
Even a completely closed US economy would not merit the current valuations Antrophic and OpenAI have.
"We are in favour of 3D printers but there should be a body that tests and certifies that a 3D printer cannot print anything that can be used as weapon. Anything pointy or with a spring and recoil or... or..."
> We should crack down on industrial-scale distillation operations.
So Open-weight models are perfectly fine, but we don't want anyone to be able to make them.
Hmmmm.
When people say "What will be left for us to work on once AI takes over", I say "Ourselves" - We have to stop looking at humans as commodities and strategic pieces and start paying attention to people as individuals, based on the content of their character. We need a society which is attuned to this, which has enough resources and time to pay attention to this. Now we are blind to people's character because it is masked by money, power and status; all of which currently have higher priority. This order of priority is determined by scarcity, which is largely artificial.
We have a dishonest system which tries to control people's behaviors through scarcity-based coercion instead of straight forward laws or simple incentives and clear explanations.
So anyone with chips can produce a model ?
If you wonder why this is written as an opening to a list of reasons that advocate for banning the open weight models, it’s because
> Anthropic has never advocated for a ban on open-weights models.
This is not an unqualified never. The very next sentence makes a qualified statement: "Open-weights models that don’t have dangerous capabilities are a public good". That prompts the question, what about ones which do have "dangerous capabilities"? Are they not a public good? If not, then should they be banned? Who gets to decide on the definitions of these terms?
Well, if you ask me, that is dangerous.
Why? Has Anthropic, or the country it is based in formally declared war against China?
"we're not saying open models are stealing, but we will quote the US vice president, saying this"
(obviously this is a joke)
And accelerate their development of independent chip making technologies even more…
Welcome to bizarro world!
Fist off: "the most dangerous model may be one that is trained in secret" <-- Says the guy that not only restricts commercial use for some of their models but develops them in utter secrecy. With the pretext of guardrails. Then show us the guardrails you really use by opening the weights.
Second: "use in drones [...] for surveillance and repression" <-- writes the King of FUD, as the US is an an active campaign with the help of their models. And/or OpenAI's.
I am very appreciative of the freedoms of the west but this type of hypocrisy and lack of self-awareness is bonkers and it should be called out.
I just don’t find it believable.
And, to me, this letter comes off as quite insincere. Stopping distillation can only be explained as an anti-competitive measure. Their own explanation is nonsensical -- they say is needs to be stopped to help prevent authoritarian governments from overtaking the US at the frontier of AI. But by its nature distillation lags behind the frontier. Not to mention the US is one of the authoritarian governments we need to be concerned with, and the next thing they advocate for is full, worldwide regulatory control of AI, which is rather heavily authoritarian.
These guys are making a $T gamble and need to screw over a lot of people very badly to make it pay off. You do not want to trust anything they say.
Note the hedging against 'dangerous capabilities'. Undoubtedly, all the useful ones trigger this condition in Anthropic's eyes. The rest of the post is filled with similar weasel-wording. Make no mistake, this absolutely confirms that Anthropic is against open models in the sense that any reasonable person understands them.
The way the rest of the post unabashedly appeals to the current US administration's China hysteria is hilarious, and not at all subtle.
I guess we'll see about all the doomsaying here, won't we? Kimi K3 is frontier-level, and there's no stopping it now. As far as the world is concerned, anyway. If the US wants to kneecap itself that's another matter.
> Open-weights models that don’t have dangerous capabilities are a public good
Knives should only cut during the day, knives which cut at night are bad.
For convenient definitions of "dangerous"
You can't have it both ways. Either it's fine to outsource to China, fine to use H1Bs to undercut US talent, or, foreign governments are strategically positioning and their espionage is a threat to America.
Anthropic anti-open-model stance does not mean China is not a threat.
Done by who?
Yeah, the rest of the world is going to bow out of your busted idiocracy, guy.
Further, Anthropic needs to can it with the horseshit distillation bullshit. No, you aren't really the secret sauce, and this is basically trying to con stakeholders by pretending that there really is a moat, only you just need to add more crocodiles.
A significant percentage of innovations in AI lately has come from China. China is now making their own seriously competitive hardware, and they can steal content just as effectively as Anthropic to train their models. Why wouldn't they be competitive?
The pathetic claim that if you just stop distillation and prevent hardware smuggling and Anthropic and OpenAI will have the same moat is delusional. I mean, more correctly it's simply fraudulent, and he clearly knows it's bullshit meant to convince much stupider people.
"My primary concern is the risk that authoritarian governments—not solely the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), although the CCP is clearly the most capable threat—build AI models that are more powerful than those built by the US, and use them to achieve permanent military superiority or perpetrate incredibly deep repression of their own people."
This sort of stuff betrays a stunning lack of self awareness. The US are the worldwide risk. The US are the ones threatening allies and bombing 10+ countries. The US are the ones carrying out war criming and pillaging, pirating and burning? The US are the ones with the guy threatening to use nuclear weapons on a weekly basis.
If Anthropic remotely believed their bullshit, they would shut down today and burn the hard drives. But they don't, and the pathetic call out to Vance (please daddy, ban those dangerous models!) is deplorable garbage.
This ridiculous, shameless "note" has an audience of one: JD Vance.
This constant whining from anthropic about distillation attacks continues to be rich given the amount of stolen data that went into any Claude variant.
IP for me, not for thee.
There's also a very strong implicit double-standard in the discourse, along the lines of "it's dangerous if non-US uses this in military fields, but it's fine if the US does so".
What are the legal ramifications of this statement if it turns out Anthropic have lobbied for this? Does it just get swept under the rug? I can't say this is bullshit (that would be defamatory) but I am intensely skeptical.
> China has limited domestic production capacity, and therefore, due to the scaling laws, cannot build more powerful models than the US without US chips.
This is playing to readers' biases; isn't DeepSeek V4 Pro deployed on Huawei Ascend already? The old "Chinese can only copy" meme is getting pretty tired these days.
> All sufficiently capable models, open and closed, should go through mandatory safety testing
Applying such standards in the US means that US defenders are blocked from using the models, but attackers from other countries aren't. That is clearly counterproductive.
It's already been pointed out quite eloquently elsewhere that there is no such thing as a safety filter because the LLM and external filters can't actually identify malicious use. They can only identify the weaker implication "if the user is malicious, this is bad."
Edit: To add some more context. What I mean is neither look like the good guys or the bad guys, but one of them is spending an awful amount of energy trying to paint the other as the bad guy and themselves as a good guy, which I hope a lot of people aren't buying anymore. Because at the end of the day, I think the honest truth is that everybody is just trying to serve their own interests.
A single canonical official document can make it very simple. Even though each department cannot achieve the maximum gain from nuanced documents, keeping operational context as simple as possible may really improve LLM driven operations to move faster and cut cost.
If "publishing pleasant positions and actually following them in general" becomes a good business storategy in LLM driven society, it can be one of very few good outcomes from this dystopian AI craze.
> Open-weights models that don’t have dangerous capabilities are a public good
There are no models that don't have dangerous capabilities. There is not a single human in the world that doesn't have a dangerous capability.
> authoritarian government [] build AI models that are more powerful than those built by the US
Yeah, they will do that no matter whether you support the existence of open weight models or don't. In fact, they have probably already done that. I would say "deal with it" but there is nothing you can do actually.
> authoritarian regimes have stolen and used AI
Monkey looking away meme.jpg
> powerful AI models may be misused
Small AI models may be misused just as well. I would say it's the small models that are the problem: cheaply deployable, easily fine-tunable, fast.
> once weights are released they cannot be withdrawn
Exactly. It has been already done. So?
> We should not sell powerful chips or chipmaking equipment to China
I agree. We should have competition and I'm rooting for China to design their own chips. They wouldn't if we let them buy our's.
> We should crack down on industrial-scale distillation operations
Well, at this time it's already irrelevant. We have GLM-2, DeepSeek, K3, which are already SOTA and can be used for distillation.
> All sufficiently capable models [] should go through mandatory safety testing
Problem is, it's unenforceable legally. Models are just math and all previous attempts to ban maths have failed and simply pushed US back. I will not be asking US government permission to calculate matrixes of my choice.
One of two outcomes are true in this scenario: 1) this is unrealistic fear-mongering or 2) we're all fucked.
I just don't see how our solution to this can be export controls or bans. If the fear of a bioweapon engineered by an open weight AI is a legitimate threat, our only option is to develop effective countermeasures (and perhaps the same AI will assist with protecting). Open weights are not going away and pretending like some sort of "ban" will prevent bad actors from accessing them is a fairy tale.
source: Trust me bro.
There are hundreds of articles showing that China have developed their own chips and have a massive manufacturing capacity. This blog post feels like is pondering to the brain dead Fox News audience.
Translation: "we won't be able to monetise it"
"We should not sell powerful chips or chipmaking equipment to China"
Translation: "we can buy them cheaper when there's less purchasing competition".
"Distillation is a much more compute-efficient process than training models from scratch. It allows China to build much better models than its number of chips would ordinarily enable."
Translation: "we've been outsmarted and lost our advantage because their way is faster and cheaper"
I think it's a bit rich to complain about distillation, when they been plundering the internet for years for copyrighted works to train their models on without permission.
Read between the lines folks. Anthropic deems every model that has frontier capabilities as "dangerous", and thus they are against them. We all know that "dangerous" simply means "whatever model hurts our bottom line."
More dishonest framing from the company that constantly lies to everyone. No surprises here.
I was hoping they would announce their first open weights model, perhaps an older model they don’t offer anymore, but no. Instead he get this bs statement that reeks of “dam it I’m so close to being a billionaire” desperation. Not even acknowledgement of how much data they stole from others yet he whines about distilling.
It’s like his goal in life is to be a Scooby-Doo villain.
You mean the industrial scale distillation attack you perform on the entire corpus of human knowledge… idk, call me cynical but you reap what you sow.
Diverse ecosystems can absorb shocks. Diverse ecosystems are a sign of health of that ecosystem. When an invasive species comes into a healthy, diverse, ecosystem it doesn't mean that it isn't disrupted, but it does mean that it is far more likely to emerge with a lot of its diversity intact. In fact, it is likely to emerge even stronger because it can absorb that new shock and incorporate it, adding to its diversity. The balance may be changed, but the ecosystem survives or even thrives.
Nature also likes to show us that artificial barriers rarely last. You want to control a river? Good luck. It take constant maintenance to hold that flow in place and even then you are likely to get extremes that are made worse by your efforts because, eventually, somewhere in the system fails in a way you didn't anticipate. Then the water comes rushing in. Artificial barriers often have a way of building up tension over time, not reducing it, so that when a failure eventually happens it can be catastrophic. In other words, you had better really understand the system you are trying to control or else you can make things actively worse.
Relating this to the world now means, I think, that our best chance to minimize long term shock and maximize the chance that the diversity we have around us survives is to try to grow as healthy of an ecosystem as we can as quickly as possible. Lots of models large and small in lots of different hands is, I think, a better solution than artificial barriers restricting the variety and diversity of models and users. I think this is closer to an ecosystem solution and has a shot at working. Basically, I highly doubt we understand this situation enough to do a good job of controlling it with artificial barriers. Instead I think we are more likely to build catastrophic imbalances than we are to create the healthy ecosystem we really need.
What a nice implicit way to say that it would be okay if the authoritarian government is the current US government trying to perpetrate incredibly deep repression of their own people.
Yes, please. We don't know whether we'd have open weight models today, had the chip-prohibition not been in place. Nor would we see the more optimized models such as DeepSeek or qwen.
We also would not see new players entering RAM market after you and your pals in Silicon Valley hoarded the entire world's hardware.
So by all means, double, no, triple down on this.
> We should crack down on industrial-scale distillation operations
And let's apply this retroactively to Anthropic too. You industrial-scale-operation-distilled all of humanity's knowledge. Let's have some of that crack down on you too.
There's not much stopping US from becoming an authoritarian regime, and the US is already using AI against its own citizens.
But what if it's the US that becomes authoritarian and uses AI models to perpetrate incredibly deep repression of their own people?
> Anthropic has never advocated for a ban on open-weights models.
"We don't want a total ban on ALL open-weights models" (Anthropic never released a single open weight model)
> All sufficiently capable models, open and closed, should go through mandatory safety testing.
"We want tight regulations on highly powerful open or closed weight models that should go through mandatory safety testing that we outline which makes them safe to use."
This is still a form of a ban that he wants to define. But the rest of his concerns such as stopping distillation attacks and not selling chips to China all do NOT work.
> My primary concern is the risk that authoritarian governments—not solely the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)....
This is why open weights win. See Linux and how it's taken over the world. Your business model will need to change eventually. Instead you're advocating trying to exterminate competition via regulation and fear mongering.
> My secondary concern is the risk that powerful AI models may be misused to carry out cyberattacks or biological attacks
Yawn... this is getting old.
> We should not sell powerful chips or chipmaking equipment to China
For as someone as smart as you guys, you sure lack common sense. China is just going to develop these technologies organically then and you lose 100% of control. It's already happened in reverse with things like Solar, rare earth minerals, etc. China flooded our market, destroyed our ability to produce things, now holds the keys. One thing they DIDNT do was stop trading to the US. They killed us with cheap goods.
> We should crack down on industrial-scale distillation operations.
Thats your problem, not my problem. Also, irony meter here hitting 11 about all those pirated books you stole...
> All sufficiently capable models, open and closed, should go through mandatory safety testing
Oh, fuck, no. This is a crackdown on free speech and rights of people to do whatever they want. My right to free speech means I'm allowed to write whatever computer program I want, no matter what its size is or how "sufficiently advanced" it is. Individual rights always win.
I really hope people don't believe this garbage. For a company with a great product, this is absolute nonsense.
That is not an argument against open weight models. That's just a generic protectionist argument against any Other lab.
I asked a question about a series of tokens - bam, denied and downgraded. There's no cyber security or public risk here, but Fable doesn't want me to learn how things work.
I asked a question about quantization in models - bam, denied and downgraded. I edit my question to make it clear I'm talking about Google's Gemma QAT models. Oh, that's fine then, and it answered the question helpfully.
Anti-competitive bullshit. I hope they fail.
Do you accept?
Secondly, he's like the Trump of tech: China, China, China.
Thirdly, he needs to cut it out with the guardrails and other safety BS he's peddling. If we're going to get Skynet, we will get it no matter what we do.
Umm, isn't the US acting like another authoritarian regime by advocating a certain kind of obstacle because only a US regime is allowed[1] to do what it is fearing[1] about:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Biological_...
[2] AI models may be misused to carry out cyberattacks or biological attacks
Anyway, Dario. You are more concerned about your business than anything else.
this guy is smokin spaceballs and should be institutionalized.