It's like you said, they don't believe there is a viable business yet.
To me, the "wait and see" approach looks more like "we have no strategy for the hottest technology revolution in decades that threatens a bunch of our moats." Maybe they're hoping that the bubble pops and then they can pick up a suitable AI company on the cheap -- thankfully they have buttloads of cash -- but you know what they say about hope and strategies...
Personally I'm hoping for strong on-device AI capabilities to reduce dependency on the clouds / AI labs, but I'm losing hope that it'll be from Apple.