I wonder if this kind of analysis will give us a way to check if the frontier labs are waiting for the right moment to release their models. To me it feels obvious that these companies are not releasing models as soon as they are done doing their post training / testing with any new model.

But there is no real way to know how much of this "waiting" any lab is doing, if we can get better estimates this way maybe we can gauge how far the open weights models really are.