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Just around, or slightly around the level of testing that Roe vs Wade prior to Dobbs. Or a bakers dozen of other established precedents that were "one of the more tested legal concepts" until ... recently.

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Generally speaking, no: there’s a significant difference in precedent between the two. IANAL, but interstate commerce is explicitly written into the Constitution as the jurisdiction of the federal government and was tested (and generally serially expanded) in court multiple times long before Roe.

Birthright citizenship is explicitly written into the Constitution, yet about a month ago, 2 SCOTUS justices provided opinions and votes suggesting that this detail doesn't matter much.

4, actually.

3 voted to allow the executive order rescinding birthright citizenship.

1 voted against the order, but on the reasoning that it violated a law from the early 1900s, not the Constitution.

Unfortunately for Roe v Wade, abortion and a right to privacy aren't explicitly laid out in the Constitution. Interstate commerce is. New York would be entirely in their right to ban Kalshi in New York but not halt operations nationwide.

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