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Comment by nakedrobot2 | Hacker News Reader

I see the same breathless optimism here as in the dawn of the WWW in the laste nineties. People with little to no understanding of what 3d printing is or its limitations, making wild extrapolations that don't take much reality (especially the social, legal, and political implications) into account.

The fact is, we do not have any idea where 3d printing will take us. The idea that we'll all have 3d printers in our home is possibly a bit silly.

That said, I also have a huge optimism for the future of 3d printing. But these use cases thrown around by people often just sound silly to me.

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The point needs to be made that 3D printing as "StarTrek replicator" is going to take many many decades. The real big deal is that 3D printing is leading the acceleration of digital manufacturing methods in general (CNC milling, etc.). 3DP is just a good gateway drug for a far larger movement that's beginning to take shape in non-SciFi ways.

I think these types of comments are always needed for people to ground themselves to reality.

Of course everybody wants technology to get exponentially better in the future but like you mentioned, through different social, legal and political factors, it will be extremely hard.

Yeah reminds me a bit of Back to the Future II. There was a fax machine in every room of the house.

Also a lot of people barely know how to work with wood. I'd expect even fewer to understand the basics of material science to work with polymers and other compounds.

If anything we're at the ImageWriter phase of 3D printing. You could print from home but to have anything worthwhile you'll probably want to take it to a shop who'll have better materials and someone knowledgable. That expert will tell you why you shouldn't use your creation to serve food on or that it dissolves when exposed to solvents.

> There was a fax machine in every room of the house.

/house/office and they predicted the future of Japan pretty darn well!

3d printing in our home via cubify.com runs a customer $1300, but no doubt in time that cost will decrease. I say in the next couple of years prices for home 3d printers will be consumer friendly.

On a side note, I think 3D printing is going to hurt many industries and possibly be used nefariously (creating a weapon and or other illegal vices).

I remember when paper printers were the same. We have no idea but we can interpolate from the past.

I can easily see myself owning a 3D printer to make all the various trinkets I would otherwise buy at IKEA or the dollar store. That is if the quality/price ratio increases.

Then you should learn your lesson and invest in 3D stock, ready to pull out when the hype has reached crazy heights :-)

I see the same breathless optimism here as in the dawn of the WWW in the laste [sic] nineties.

So in about a decade, most of these predictions should start coming true... except with the acceleration of technology, it might take ~5 years instead of ~10.

I'm completely fine with that.

> The idea that we'll all have 3d printers in our home is possibly a bit silly.

I have a 3d printer at home, or at least a half-assembled one :) You can get one for yourself at http://reprappro.com/ . The smaller one is only around $669.

I don't think price will be the limiting factor, rather the fact that most people won't think of a realistic use for them. Look at photo printers, they're getting cheaper and cheaper yet sales are declining since they just don't make financial sense for most people. Most people I know (even many professionals) get many or all of their photos printed by third parties.

Yes, and my electrical engineer friend has built an X-ray device in a briefcase. And it is useful. And a hundred years ago, people were saying that everyone would have an X-ray device in their home. But it didn't quite work out that way.

And yes, I DO want a 3-d printer in my home. The Form1 looks awesome. My neighbor has a Prusa reprap, and it is definitely too finicky for anyone but the most hardcore early adopter types, in my opinion.

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