Possibly, but sometimes being marginally better lets you win all the games. It can be difficult to guess what matters and how.
Also, may depend where the compute is physically located, which may depend on the cost of energy.
Globalisation's great right up until your manufacturing base decides they don't like you, or you them.
Reshoring is expensive for all the reasons offshoring was ever tempting in the first place, so we'll have to wait and see how this plays out.
And why do you see reshoring as the only alternative? Seems like a false dilemma. There's more than two places on the globe.
Which is great, unless demand for electricity goes up loads. (Edit: Which I expect to occur if for example AI is transformative enough to warrant fears of people without it becoming an economic backwater).
> And why do you see reshoring as the only alternative? Seems like a false dilemma. There's more than two places on the globe.
"Here" and "not here" is a complete set. I could also phrase it as "autarky or trade".
> Globalisation's great right up until your manufacturing base decides they don't like you, or you them.
Your manufacturing base might be in China. You might be in Bulgaria. And when China doesn't like you, you ask someone else.
People are also increasingly uncertain how the next geopolitical Great Game will play out, so even if for each economic input there was a good alternative to China today, in the same way that the post-WW2 world had to pick sides between USA and USSR, we wouldn't know which source was safe vs. which was about to get itself integrated into China so deeply that their nation follows and enforced all sanctions China creates.
Picking sides (and swapping sides) was often useful to get patronage and to play the sides against each other, but it wasn't necessary.