15% at 45? You better have a source for that number.
Age 20: About 1 in 500 (0.2%) Age 30: About 1 in 270 (0.37%) Age 35: About 1 in 80 (1.25%) Age 40: About 1 in 60 (1.66%) Age 45: About 1 in 20 (5.0%)
Which actually kinda refutes me because 1 in 500 is still a lot.