It's based on personal experience and what little I know about how moderation works here. Of course as the mods have told me many, many times, I could just be wrong about everything.
But I've seen plenty of things go by unnoticed and plenty of times the mods will bring up the quality of someone's comments or the age of their account when trying to talk someone down, meanwhile other accounts don't get as much slack. And they'll mention that they "can't see everything," but of course that could be inaccurate.