Comment by bmgoau | Hacker News Reader

Comment by bmgoau | Hacker News Reader

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To be honest, while Putin is obsessed with irredentism it's either: let him take back all the old Soviet states (which simply won't be tolerated by people there or Europe) or keep up the ongoing defence and make the cost for Russia high enough to stunt them until Putin dies either naturally or by falling out a window.

People like Trump and Elon think a deal can be done with Putin or he can be placated, or there's some sort of solution like you're waiting to hear, but all attempts to even begin negotiation fail because Putin is dead set on rebuilding the Empire. Apparently in any discussion about his war he spends hours talking about Russia's historical claims and ownership and shows old documents and books etc.

I'm sorry it seems to you like no one has come up with a good solution but it's either give Russia one or more countries (and then he'll want more...) or defend until he loses power or dies.

irredentism is a hell of a drug. Putin is fully locked in.

Regardless of Putin's obsession with Ukraine, the problem is that his clan views this war (and future wars like this) as a campaign to create a new world order where the EU and the US withdraw from supporting countries in what they consider their sphere of influence, and, ultimately, give up any ideas of affecting change inside Russia.

It's an age-old story of a crime family holding on to its mafia state.

Yeah, it's this "we continue fighting until Putin eventually dies" line of thinking which horrifies me. Is that our war strategy? That's a recipe for permanent war.

It's based on several flawed assumptions: that Putin's death will happen soon, that Putin's death will lead to a leader with a radically different and more amenable geopolitical vision.

Do understand that the popular narrative in Russia mirror's the ours exactly: "We can't just roll over and let the West have Ukraine".

I'm sorry, but "keep fighting until Putin has a heart attack" is stupid beyond belief. The only way to safely end this conflict is to freeze it. Continuation risks catastrophic escalation.

Of course it's stupid. This is a stupid war. No one on the Ukraine or EU or western side wants to be in this war. If you're saying defence is not an option are you suggesting we roll over give Putin back the old Soviet states? Let him do his ethnic cleansing? Putin does NOT want to freeze this war, he honestly, truely believes he can continue to weaken the west and Ukraine until he can rebuild his empire. Go read any of his writings or interviews for the last 10 years. He's an irridentist to his bones. This is not the Korean war where a DMZ will be agreed to. While Putin lives he will keep the war going, keep trying to take over Ukraine entirely and the old Soviet states. He sees the loss of the ex Soviet states to the EU as a historic mistake and catastrophe that he intends to set right via military action. While the front might grind to a halt, there's no scenario where he would agree to end the war with just the land he's captured today.

Incorrect, there are lots of people in the West with a vested interest in keeping this war rolling. We're selling guns, doing R&D, Europe now buys its gas from America (at a higher price) instead of Russia, Zelenskyy does not need to face election.

Groups of people in the West are benefiting massively. Most Ukrainians are not. Most normal citizens of Western countries are not, we're shouldering the cost in rising cost of living, elevated military spending.

We have a hot war on our continent. I repeat, this is very fucking dangerous. WW1 was a brutal, grinding land battle with immense costs for all its European participants. It also led to WW2, which culminated in the absolute decimation of European cities and the eventual use of nuclear weapons. This is the path we're retreading.

You continue to personalise this around Putin. It is incredibly naive to think that Putin disappearing will resolve the problem. It will not.

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