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Comment by PorciiVorbesc | Hacker News Reader

>and they plan to invade Taiwan in just a few years

Can you share your sources for that valuable intelligence? Military analysts would really be interested to learn that. Or is that form the same manufactured scaremongering genre as "Iran is 6 weeks away from building nuclear weapons" and "Iraq has WMDs" to justify endless defense spending, military interventions and warmongering.

> at which point either we let them take control of AI chip production

You can't just commandeer semi fabs like you're carjacking a Hyundai for a joyride. Semi fabs need constant parts and on-prem staff and always-on telemetry from ASML & friends to run. If that's gone, you're left with a very expensive warehouse that can't do shit.

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The fabs will not survive a ground invasion. If they're not hit accidentally someone will blow them up to deny them to the enemy, whether that's a Taiwanese nationalist or the US.

It feels like MAD is eroding, because at one point the reaction to China invading Taiwan would obviously have been a nuclear exchange.

>because at one point the reaction to China invading Taiwan would obviously have been a nuclear exchange.

There is no way anyone would nuke China if/when they invade Taiwan the same way nobody nuked Russia when they invaded Ukraine. And Russia is a lot less relevant globally than China.

It'll be another conventional war like the current Russo-Ukrainian one where the west will sanction China and support Taiwan.

Iran being x weeks away from a working nuclear weapon and Iran not currently having a nuclear weapon are not mutually exclusive scenarios.

Your second paragraph assumes China doesn’t have all the espionage necessary, and hasn’t proven their capabilities on their own labs.

Like the Chinese are just sans neocortex or something.

You don't build out a massive fleet of amphibious landing craft, mobile piers, and other similar Navy ships that can only be used for invading another country via the sea... for self-defense. These have one purpose, and China is mass-producing them.

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-CHINA/TAIWAN-INVASION/z...

https://www.ft.com/content/36a00ba4-6178-4267-9786-3e0b59abe...

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-taiwan-military-naval-...

> "Iran is 6 weeks away from building nuclear weapons"

It is the breakout time, not the schedule.

It is incredible to me how pervasive the misunderstanding of this statement is!

I've had real-life conversations with project managers just like this:

PM: "How long would this project take?"

Me: "One month."

... two weeks later ...

PM: "How long would the project take to finish?"

Me: "One month."

PM: "You said that two weeks ago! It should only take two weeks to finish!"

Me: "Why would you think that? We never started the project! It wasn't approved. You didn't approve it, personally. The effort is four weeks. If you approve and we start today, it will still take that long to complete."

... two more weeks later ...

PM: "Why isn't the project finished!? You said one month a month ago!"

Me: "... wat?"

They obviously want to be able to invade Taiwan, yes, nobody serious would assert that they're developing amphibious capacity for self defence.

That's not the same thing as planning to invade in 2027, though. Militaries can need a capability without an imminent specific plan to actually use it. See the US's amphibious capacity. See nukes.

> nobody serious would assert that they're developing amphibious capacity for self defence

And why wouldn't they build that type of stuff for self defense? Which country doesn't do self defense? Have you seen how huge China's coast is and how many islands they have to defend?

>You don't build out a massive fleet of amphibious landing craft, mobile piers, and other similar Navy ships that can only be used for invading another country via the sea... for self-defense.

Firstly, this take is poorly thought out from a facts perspective, needlessly alarmist and mostly just FUD.

The fact is that China has thousands of islands in its territory already. So how else would their military be able to DEFEND those islands WITHOUT "a massive fleet of amphibious landing craft" capable of landing troops and material on islands that they own? It doesn't mean they 100% WILL invade Taiwan just because they have them, like you claim.

Secondly, the three news sources you then quoted are just your typical clickbaity mainstream media with nothing to lose if they are wrong in their alarmist predictions or just blatantly lie like they often do to manipulate people and financial markets, especially given their incentives and ties to politics and the wealthy elite.

So telling people on HN with 100% certainty China will invade Taiwan in the near future just because you read something about China's drills of Taiwan invasion in the MSM, just gets you more egg on your face that nobody can take your takes on this seriously. I'm 100% sure that the US Navy also regularly has drills on nuking China and Russia from their submarines, that doesn't mean they're actually planning to do it anytime soon with no provocation. So please, stop turning what is bland vanilla news into alarmist FUD.

> thousands of islands in its territory already

Chinas has hundreds (not thousands) of islands in its territory, which has increased from 287 in 2019 to 431 in 2026. This is not "defense".

> nobody can take your takes on this seriously.

Russia moved mobile crematoriums up to the Ukraine border in February 2022, and people still dismissed the chances of their invasion as vanishingly unlikely.

Dismissing an obvious military buildup from a country that has plainly stated their intentions is an error.

>This is not "defense".

With the argument being ... ?

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