[1] Yamamoto, M. Tomography of thermospheric density from Starlink Ephemeris: initial report. Earth Planets Space 78, 175 (2026). http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40623-026-02509-5
[2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260812015212.h...
[1] Yamamoto, M. Tomography of thermospheric density from Starlink Ephemeris: initial report. Earth Planets Space 78, 175 (2026). http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40623-026-02509-5
[2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260812015212.h...
And for very good reasons indeed. With the number of satellites they have and the number of other things in LEO, there's a legit need for automated planning/alarming of future collision avoidance maneuvers. Both by spacex and by third party operators. I guess what I meant is that despite them publishing the ephemerides of the satellites one thing that shall remain opaque to an outsider is details like how long a prograde burn lasts, how much fuel it consumes, how much calculated delta-v each burn imparts to a satellite (you can't know this unless you know the precise weight of the satellite and its estimated remaining onboard propellant).
I think calculating an accurate expected degradation in orbit from the point of view of a spacex outsider would also be hard unless you were in possession of the 3D modeling datasets that document exactly how much drag the satellite has in different orientations. Reasonably decent estimates can be made, but I'm sure SpaceX has much better data. One of the most interesting satellites in recent memory is one that was specifically designed to be long and somewhat streamlined to prolong its lifespan at very low orbital altitude: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GOCE
> how long a prograde burn lasts, how much fuel it consumes, how much calculated delta-v each burn imparts to a satellite
Yes, to the first two, but surprisingly not to the third. Since the maneuvers are short and much higher thrust than the average atmospheric drag, you can accurately pinpoint where those maneuvers are occurring. The energy gain can only come from the thrusters, and you can also use your atmospheric model to subtract out the (very small, comparatively) energy lost to drag. So you can actually calculate the delta-V of each maneuver quite accurately even if you don't know its exact duration or propellant consumption.
> One of the most interesting satellites in recent memory is one that was specifically designed to be long and somewhat streamlined to prolong its lifespan at very low orbital altitude
GOCE was an astounding mission! They were trying to accomplish something much harder though, mapping tiny distortions of the Earth's gravitational field, which required an ion thruster to precisely cancel out the fluctuations due to atmospheric drag and maintain an inertial trajectory. You need several orders of magnitude less precision to map the atmospheric drag itself.
I think the coolest aspect of this work is that without any involvement from SpaceX, and taking advantage of the large numbers of Starlink satellites, the researchers were able to use some nice modelling and statistics to get some very high-quality data.