It ain't gonna happen. At work I have a dropdown menu in vscode with a dozen models to use interchangeably. They're all essentially commodities and will compete on price and squash almost all profit margin.
If I'm a business and I need something done today, and bc Anthropic has the best model, there's a 99.9 chance it will be completed successfully for $1000. And using Deepseek there's a 70% chance it will, for $10 - you or me will go for the $10. Big businesses don't. Bc 1000 per task is nothing to them.
The real issue is that Deepseek has a 99.7% chance. So I can run it 10 times until it works and still pay 1/10 the money.
Big businesses might pay $1000 vs $60 for certain tasks, but that won't work out well at scale.
Most folks I know can choose from any of the big labs or open weight models and they get billed internally for tokens against their budget. There’s little incentive to no switch to the lower cost closers.
This setup is a nightmare scenario for the big labs trying to execute the traditional enterprise sales plays. Those only work if your product is sticky and AI models are one of the least sticky things in the history of tech.
Also, is it really 99.9% vs 70%, or 99.9% vs 99%?