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If Moore's law continues, then in less than 10 years today's state of the art model will be able to run on a cell phone. How much smarter do we actually need AI to be? Would it still require datacenters and custom hardware?

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Moore's law stalled ~2015. Unfortunately, no way current models will run on the <100W thermal budget of a cell phone. Printing the weights directly into a chip would help efficiency a lot, but not enough.

In all likelihood in a few years we'll get ~200-400bA~4-6 MoE models that are on chip, and they'll be better than the current frontier.

I hate it when people pick up a phone while I'm using the modem.

Is it conceivable that in 10 years time we’ll have 7B models that have the same level performance as modern frontier ones?

That would be a stretch. Gemma 4 is 31B and not frontier.

They probably said the same thing about social media back in the day.

I'm sure the thinking out there, and hence investment, is all about how to tether the user to the most addictive, network-effected, incredibly deep, server-side, moat-able version of AI possible.

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