In an area where tin is abundant, individuals could easily forge their own bronze weapons, thus making it harder for the state to have a monopoly on high-tech weapons.
So I think the Harappan actually reinforce the theory.
yes, kiln-roasted Linear B in Mycenaean palaces... built on a giant fault line (literally as well as figuratively)
Civ VII 2.0 should bring back Sid's palaces in monolith data centers like The Machine / Samaritan (note: i am only halfway through season 4)
Once people started using iron instead of bronze, the first use was probably creating tools used for farming, food production, and other important things: Axes, hoes, spades, etc. And they did not just substitute bronze tools but because iron was cheaper, they probably created more of them, and new tools. And it also enabled things like nails and other construction material.
So, the economy and power structures shifted as tools enabled more economic output. By the time steel became good enough for weaponry, the bronze age was effectively already a thing of the past as the economy would have shifted to using iron for most tools long before.
And then later of course, having cheap and good enough steel weaponry enabled the creation of larger armies too. So towards the end of the Iron age, you get e.g. the Romans creating huge legions that were simply not economically feasible in the bronze age. And given that hand to hand combat was basically the way people waged wars, the ones with the bigger armies would tend to win.
The concept of "state" is very modern, we tend to retrofit it over the past, but it's often wrong. There have always been rulers, and families, competing interests and identities; which typically produced inconsistent and fragmented governance over most territories, until very recently.
Many Bronze Age empires had complex centralized bureaucracies and are generally considered states.
That would seem to support the theory in a way. If they could make bronze “in their back yard,” the same way that everyone else could make iron in the Iron Age, they would be sort of living in their own proto-iron-age, right? (In the sense that access to metallurgy was democratized). So if anything, it would provide some pretty strong support of the link between democratized metallurgy and more disperse power.
Coast-hugging boats can be made from wood with some skill. Weapons in that era requires metal in some part. That required a lot of skill.
This isn’t what the Sea Peoples built. It isn’t even what the Romans built. Most Mediterranean cultures lacked the navigational and ship-building expertise to let the shore out of sight. That doesn’t mean they didn’t need skill. But it was less skill than needed for metallurgy, in part because the latter’s inputs are dearer.
Making a boat that can carry multiple people on sea without sinking when the weather goes a little sour (which can happen in less than an hour in the Mediterranean) is a very hard thing to do. And if you know how to do that you'll never have any shortage of metal or other goods in the first place because you end up being the one who trade them for profit.
It seems you didn't read the article carefully. The author says that bronze age empires derived their power from the scarcity of tin, which they could obtain via trade routes, but was hard to get hold of for smaller rulers. In your example this scarcity doesn't hold because tin happened to be nearby. So your example is perfectly compatible with his theory.
Having said that, there is nothing to make the bronze age epoch impossible. There is nothing in the epic which may not have been possible in the bronze age based on what we already know about history.
this is definitely not possible in the bronze age or any other age for that matter from what we know of history.