If I remember right, the Japanese scientists confirmed signs of an atomic explosion, but the leaders were stuck in a debate as to whether or not to accept the findings
Maybe someone better educated can correct me if I didn't get that history quite right
Edit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoshio_Nishina#Atomic_bomb
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bunsaku_Arakatsu (check out his academic advisor!)
Contrary to Fallout lore, most nuclear bombs dont leave much concentrated radioactive material unless it was done on purpose. You either need a shittier and smaller explosion with the same material, or you need a ground burst which reduces the effective blast area.
The US was on ground zero in under 2 weeks in Japan and couldn't detect anything over the background in radioactive isotopes.
Books:
Code-Name Downfall by Allen
Downfall by Frank
The surrender was due to their fear that the US had a third bomb and would drop it on Tokyo.
The strikes conducted by the USAAF on the night of 9–10 March 1945, codenamed Operation Meetinghouse, constitute the single deadliest and most destructive aerial bombing raid in human history. Sixteen square miles (41 km2; 10,000 acres) of central Tokyo was destroyed, leaving an estimated 100,000 civilians dead and over one million homeless.
~ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_TokyoPerhaps that "third bomb on Tokyo" fear was a bit made up and ahistoric.
>It was abandoned after the surrender.
Japan is strongly believed to be on the order of months away from assembling a nuclear weapon, and not just one, they have the materials for many. For them it is not geopolitically useful to actually finish a weapon, but they are more than capable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapons_progr...
Why, they could take their revenge, couldn't they.
This whole thing is stories built upon stories built upon stories. It's stories all the way down till you reach The World Set Free by British propaganda writer H.G. Wells, published in 1913–14 as part of the British war propaganda preparations against Germany. I don't recommend the book, it's psychologically dull and constructed, but that's where Leo Szilárd picked up the idea of an “atomic superbomb” in 1932 when reading the novel, which led to the Einstein letter in 1939. Well, according to the story anyway.
https://www.aec.go.jp/bunya/04/plutonium/20260805_e.pdf
As of the end of 2025, the total amount of Japan’s separated plutonium managed both within and outside Japan was approximately 44.4 tons, of which approximately 9.9 tons were held domestically and approximately 34.5 tons were held abroad.
Despite the nomenclature, weapons grade plutonium is not necessary to make nuclear weapons. Reactor grade plutonium has more problems with predetonation ("fizzle") and decay heat management, but both obstacles can be bypassed by design changes. In particular, "boosting" with a mixture of deuterium and tritium overcomes predetonation problems and can ensure repeatable high yields even with plutonium containing a high fraction of Pu-240.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boosted_fission_weapon#Gas_boo...
The fusion reaction rate typically becomes significant at 20 to 30 megakelvins. This temperature is reached at very low efficiencies, when less than 1% of the fissile material has fissioned (corresponding to a yield in the range of hundreds of tons of TNT). Since implosion weapons can be designed that will achieve yields in this range even if neutrons are present at the moment of criticality, fusion boosting allows the manufacture of efficient weapons that are immune to predetonation. Elimination of this hazard is a very important advantage in using boosting.
This design hardens weapons against neutrons from nuclear interceptors and against neutrons generated within the core itself, e.g. spontaneous fission from "dirty" reactor plutonium.
Gas boosted bombs are more mechanically complex than the bombs of the 1940s, but the US started building them in the 1950s. Japan could easily manage the complexity today. Japan has also operated its Tritium Process Laboratory since the late 1980s, with capacity to handle 16 grams of tritium at a time. That's not much, but an individual boosted warhead may need only 3 grams of tritium.