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Comment by gridspy | Hacker News Reader

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gridspy·

Bear in mind that like many toxic blooms, once the investment hysteria feeding them dies out they will die also.

- Companies using investment funds to play the Ai Agent lottery will run out of funds

- Less tokens will be demanded, causing AI companies to raise prices to pay for overheads

- Bubble pops.

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I'm willing to have a public bet that the number of tokens (or whatever the equivalent is) would increase by more than 10x in the next 3 years.

(for equivalency of tokens I'd use something like "tasks done by AI")

I think you have the mechanism of the pop wrong. IMO, the bubble will pop because of value competition from open source / non-frontier models. This will kill the margin of OpenAI/Anthropic, popping their valuation. Without access to capital, they will slash their training budget, killing demand for B200's etc. But the same low price that pops the bubble will make demand for inference explode, along with demand for efficient inference chips, like Tensor.

> Companies using investment funds to play the Ai Agent lottery will run out of funds

The smaller ones - yes, the big spenders - no.

> Bubble pops...

... in your face. Cue 2008, those who blow the bubble gain - before, during and after its popping. Quite logical if you think about it, the bubble-blowers have enough controlling power to pull it off, is it going to be too big to fail or some other BS doesn't really matter, they are going to tell us when we get there.

Cool, bet on it: https://polymarket.com/event/ai-bubble-burst-by

Meanwhile NVDA go brrrrr.

NVDA is hardware. https://isaiprofitable.com/

A fool's errand. "the market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent."

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/

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