- First, airplanes in the first 30 years were extremely rough and dangerous. When Dole hosted a contest for the first transpacific flight in 1927, 6 out of 8 teams failed. Ten people died as a result.
- Second, people made a lot of silly predictions about this new technology. The New York Times extrapolated that people would soon start commuting to New York using personal airplanes.
- Third, people made capital investments based on these wild guesses. For example, the architects of the Empire State Building installed a huge spire to prepare for the upcoming age of airborne traffic (intended to be used as an airship docking station!)
The bottom line is that predicting the trajectory of a new technology is often impossible. As a society, we are currently in the experimental phase of LLM-based AI, testing all the possibilities one by one. Who knows which path leads where.