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To be clear I'm not trying to dismiss European AI. I am a proponent of it.

But Chinese models have very much earned their place. The same cannot be said of Europe, so far.

Most comments you've made here sound like you're dismissing European AI though

I think one can be realistic about where things stand now, while also hoping for more in the future.

Serious people haven't been very dimissive of Chinese models since at least DeepSeek-R1 in January 2025. Sadly, we in Europe are much behind.

Important to point out that these 'X months behind frontier' really refer to the public frontier, and not the actual frontier, which private companies are free to protect indefinitely. Perhaps open models are in actuality 18 months behind the actual frontier - how would any of us know?

Because we have access to these models and use them maybe? Because of benchmarks? It does not feel like there is much moat, look you can even use small models these days and do productive work. It is rather that private ones starting to get into diminishing return area which without moat is quite risky.