3sum hard was colloquially considered to be >= n^2
It's an absolutely unbelievable result! (Personally, this is more meaningful to me than Navier Stokes and feels more surprising - not that an agent did it but the result itself is extremely surprising!)
But it seems strange that an algorithm that I can come up with in 15 seconds (and I'm not very good at this) is also optimal! It's more surprising that this can't be beat (or couldn't be beat). So there must be something more to the story.
It's made more tantalising by the fact that O(n^2) is so much larger than O(n) (the obvious lower bound needed to read the input), which suggests "room" for "something clever to do better".
But I guess it is just that people have been working on it for a long time with no progress, and so the thought was that there must be something especially hard about it. And, well, there is something comforting about round numbers, and so O(n^2) is something special, whereas if the O(n^1.9992) algorithm was known from the start I doubt anybody would have been surprised if O(n^1.9991) was possible.
Eg here's a paper with a bunch https://people.csail.mit.edu/virgi/6.1420/papers/gajovermars...
So every grad student who has thought about geometry problems will have spent more time than they're proud to admit thinking about better algorithms only to realize it's 3sum hard.
It's not just "people have thought about one problem a bunch" - the whole class has been wailed on to no avail
SETH: Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis
See https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Exponential_time_...