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"Everyone globally decide to stop improving and instead compete on costs" would be an example of the kind of change I'm talking about. I don't know if that will happen but it seems somewhat plausible.

It also seems plausible that it will take many years until hardware price/performance reaches a point where companies can provide models people deem acceptable at unsubsidized prices people deem acceptable. I don't know.

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Not everyone, but it's one possible path for a company when the VC money burns out. It's more likely than these companies just dragging the model to the trashcan and declaring bankruptcy IMO.

Take a look at this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koomey%27s_law

2.6 years is about 16x in a decade. That's another path out - inference on GPUs gets so cheap they become profitable at current prices.

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