> The CIA’s “red teams” are tasked with developing analysis and ideas that challenge prevailing assumptions and expose groupthink or blind spots that can take hold within the intelligence apparatus.

So this is not some kind of consensus view within the CIA, it's a think group trying to come up with none consensus scenarios. We don't get to see the report itself of course so we don't know how likely the writers think this scenario is. Writing something may happen is great - if it happens you're a genius. If it doesn't happen - you wrote "may".

I'm not saying this definitely won't happen , but nothing makes me think this is likely anytime soon and I don't think the CIA itself thinks it is likely any time soon.