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And if I found a cheap way to turn lead into gold, I'd be a trillionaire. That doesn't mean it's likely or even possible.

No you wouldn't - that's because everyone else would soon figure out how to do the same and there would be a gold oversupply.

Sounds similar to Sam’s problem.

They also have to be the only one to make AGI. Maybe 1 of 2.

But betting everything on that if is an insanely risky one.

If the AI bubble bursts China will still be the factory of the world. They literally out-export their internal economic problems.

But for the US this is the last throw of the dice. All chips on red.