For my work in innovation/R&D the leaps are relevant but more or less orthogonal to what I’m talking about above. I think there is a limit to the consistency and quality that one can expect of software whose surface area scales linearly with the feature set, if that makes sense.

It is tempting to extrapolate the fast progress and conclude that everything will be automated soon, but it still appears to me that LLMs have a “spikey profile”: while very good in some areas, they fail completely in many others, with no evidence that this is only a matter of time.

What leaps? The marketing large feats like "broke out of containment", "hacked 10 companies"? Or "I recreated a mess of a codebase no one cares and can maintain with Claude"

There haven't been any.

The AI bros do keep saying that... next model bro. I really feel the AGI in this one.