What's your "build order"? I can usually get permits for something, but struggle getting the 40 units started by the second one (if I do get permits, it doesn't pencil).
Here’s my build order - 3 market rate projects in supportive supervisor districts, ideally in areas without heavy neighbor or coalition opposition (use the heat maps). Pay the in lieu fee or else risk the projects not penciling by the time they’re approved - 2 mega projects - mission rock is the best one, then pier 70. Waive prevailing wages, then Spend 2.5M on campaigning mission rock and offer community benefits
Spam community meetings and permit expediting. Don’t agree to labor agreements, don’t give density unless the commission denies your approval. This should get you past the first two investor reviews. Ideally you can complete a mega project, which gives you a buffer to option a bunch of marginal land
Then pivot to affordable around 2020 when everything stops penciling. Max out density bonuses. Start picking up projects that almost pencil but not quite because you’ll need them to get past the reviews in 2027 and beyond
Keep spamming community meetings and permit expediting, and always pay to save on build time unless your in the 20-25 doldrums where nothing pencils. Keep your pipeline full and you should win
You can build a lot more mega projects, but it hinges on luck and timings. Before the price crash in 2020, you can build phase 1 of all the pre-approved mega projects, and have time to start phase 2 on one of them.
You'll go bankrupt before you can do them all, so you need to pick up at least one of the pre-approveds, then immediately drop and sell the entitlement, for ~8M profit, that gets you the buffer needed.
Mission Rock you can build the first phase before the crash, then hold onto it allll the way through until the late 2020s when prices recover, and get the 2nd phase out then. Pier 70 is pretty luck-dependent.
I can't make any other megas besides mission rock pencil. How did you do that?
I mostly started cranking out 100% affordable during the early 2020s... probably should have hired more teams since that seems to be the limit, especially towards the end.
Hunter's will get hit by bad news later on, and you can take the proposal then immediately sell it for $6.4M profit on day one.
Schlage has a 2.1M permit expediter cost, if you are lucky (few RNG delays to permit/phase 1 build), then you will be able to get to 2020 and get phase 2 pencilled by optimising construction.
Mission Rock is not pre-approved but you can get to phase 1 build before the price crash in 2020. It's possible to luck out on the ballot step without accepting the "campaign + 40% affordable" option, but doesn't matter because if you stay solvent long enough for Schlage, Parkmerced, Treasure Island to complete phase 1, you will have no financial issues for the rest of the game.
You do want to go without union labor for Mission Rock because while it will pencil pre-crash for phase 1, you will be holding onto it until the late 2020s to build phase 2, and you want it to become pencillable ASAP so that it can complete phase 2 before the clock runs out in 2031.
There is a megaproject which appears pre-crash, just above 2670 Geary Blvd. You can get that building if you're lucky, too.
From what I can see, the optimal early game is: 1. Propose on Hunters, no labor, then sell for $6.4M. 2. Propose on Schlage, Parkmerced, Treasure Island, all no union - expedite permit on Schlage for a shot at pencilling phase 2 build before the 2020 crash blocks this. 3. Hire 3 more teams, take a: 2670 Geary Blvd - no rezone, 0%/fee, with unions; b: Mission Rock - no unions and ballot option C (full campaign/40% affordable); c: 450 O'Farrell St - 100% affordable. 4. When Schlage, Parkmerced, Treasure Island start to build, take the Presidio megaproject, 8 Washington St (100% affordable), and then move on to the most cost-efficient lots for 100% affordable development in Mission.
You will loss-lead while passing the first two investor reviews and nearly go broke, the 100% affordables will tide you over slightly, then your megaprojects will start completing and you'll be up ~$130M. You can drop Parkmerced, Schlage, Treasure Island at this point because they won't pick up value again later on.
At that point you are optimising for homes built. Max out the affordable fund on the most efficient/unpencillable locations. Start proposals on the high-density locations that will become pencillable as prices increase post-2025, get the prep work out of the way so they start constructing ASAP. If you got Mission Rock building without union labor you have a shot at completing phase 2 now.
There's likely more optimisation to squeeze here, but it seems too luck-based (like changing the ballet on Mission Rock, or going riskier on the early-game builds), I didn't explore it. The main risk is settling lawsuits early-game - this will bankrupt you before you can get a return from the megaprojects.
Discretionary Review (Developer): I built 11,191 homes in San Francisco, 2015 to 2031. Grade S, "Skyline Problem". Survived all eight investor reviews. 27 hearings, 7 appeals, 7 lawsuits. The city needed 82,069. Ranked #1 of 116 on the global leaderboard.
You can build two phases of Schlage, Parkmerced, Treasure Island, 3333 California, Mission Rock, plus one phase of Fifth And Mission!