It certainly does not. There is a huge and growing [1] (albeit still below ‘22 peak) tech outsourcing industry there.
Plus, likely Europe’s most advanced defense-industrial base for drones and, increasingly, missiles of all kinds. Being on the right side of a war works wonders for morale.
[1] https://itcluster.lviv.ua/en/gradual-market-stabilization-wh...
Ukraine's estimated population in 2022 was around 40 million. Various numbers provided by UN officials to Ukrainian govt officials have at various times put Ukrainian population (in govt controlled areas) at 35 million [1], 32 million [2], 22-25 million [3]. This with adult men being actively blocked from leaving Ukraine.
[1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-ukrainian-po... [2] https://kyivindependent.com/200-000-500-000-men-could-leave-... [3] https://www.novinite.com/articles/238511/The+Uncomfortable+T...
To be fair, I have never understood this obsession with Ukrainian numbers as some kind of proof that Ukraine is doomed. There are people that have sent their families abroad and returned to Ukraine to fight Russia. There are certainly also ethnic Russians that do not want to help Ukraine in this war, but on other side they do not want to join Russia either, as they would be sent to die for sure. Many reasons for many people what they do and why.
During WW1 my home country lost 50% of population, as many people escaped frontline - most of them returned and rebuilt everything.
I am very sure that Ukrainians after war will rebuild Ukraine - probably that will be another European center competing with Germany - unlike Russians, that are abroad now as they won't rebuild Russia - as Russia very surely will collapse. What would be built in the place of Russia is rather hard to tell right now, but I do not think that many Russians will want to return to that where they would be out of place in those new countries, just like they are out of place in modern Russia.
Ukraine even with war going on looks more promising, as population has a hope - for better future and that matters a lot.
>>>No one below at least regional level oligarchy. The oligarchy will only consolidate and strengthen.
I do not share your negativity towards business owners, but it seems to be common trend here as well. For better or worst, but they follow the trend of society and and are driving force of any society. There is no alternative to them, but at this point there is a choice between Singapore or China model of people involved in state corporation - just like Europeans 100+ years ago choose Capitalism with Socialist face. Humans are social animals and that is what limits us same time also giving our main strength.
>>>Nationalism was only a poison
I think that modern corruption, have destroyed nationalism. The nation itself is an idea, that holds society together. When you have no unifying idea for a nation, it does not exist. The scourge of modern people is that they have no education in these topics, though they have some instinct level understanding that something is wrong.
>>>Russia will survive
I do not see why Russia would survive. How? With what? Putin has destroyed any social mechanisms, that makes state - Russians will have to build new state and I can't see how with ethnic Russians being chauvinistic racists towards significant part of their population. Russia basically is repeating history of Haiti - it will be torn apart by "tamed" ethnicities and nihilistic Russians themselves and even 1% radicals among them is enough to poison them to act destructively against Russians, that show no signs of regrets or guilt - this is actually insane combination of society of imminent self-destruct and I am very positive, that 100 million cannibals have no chances of survival against even couple of million of determined hunters bent on hunting them out to extinction. Also, my prognosis puts into account things that have not happened yet, but Russians are are heading there for sure. Regardless, even if suddenly a miracle would happen and war would stop - Russia is a failed state that has lowest birth rates and highest mortality rates - everything is in ruins, access to medicine, state, roads, business a lot of criminals - not even counting those that are criminals in state level and army. It is a nightmare case to make out of Russia normal country. Couple of million of people have to be tried and lustrated - to just sift out worst sh!t. It is a mafia state - southern Italy is even super developed compared to what Russia is now.
>>>Ukraine maybe will. Poland is not even at war and follows the same pattern - emigrants replaced by imported population, skyrocketing wealth inequalities.
Frankly I don't think that it is justified to see history as linear evolution. Things change - we currently are experiencing changes, but they won't last in that quality for longer time. It is expected as status quo of power has to change - US, Russia, China - these three countries has to vanish or their power has to diminish and these are the only changes that will lead us into future. What you are seeing now are just a small waves - some of those are echoes from the past, like migration, that is linked with morality and egoism of businesses built on exploiting modern slavery and for the best and worst dislinked society from business and state.
I'm sorry to say this, but whole chaos that you despair is perfect fertile ground for new societies to raise in place - including state functions, which will eventually lead to what is a solution to what you do not see now. We are living in "interesting times", but for future generations that would not look like end of times you are painting.
I think a realistic figure is several hundred thousands. There is not so many rich Russians that can afford living abroad, and not everyone is a software developer.
Also, I would not trust ANY statistics coming from Russia. There is also significant difficulties to count how many people are actually outside of their country, like it was in the case of my home country, where statistics(that were not politically restricted, like it is in Russia) was nowhere near the ACTUAL numbers, which were significantly higher than what was even suggested.
yeah, hating papers is our national trait at this point, given Diia and stuff XD
According to Bloomberg 45% of relocants have returned by 2024 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/05/02/russians-returning...
Russian sources state that that around 80% have returned. True number is probably somewhere in between.