If the FP-9 arrives on time and enters serial production, Ukraine will have a ballistic missile which can meaningfully tap Moscow's power plants. It could be a long winter for Moscow.
1. https://sydneyreviewofbooks.com/reviews/communion-of-the-sub...
There is no reason for me to think that Russia will not be the same. Ukraine could be Russia's last imperialist war. That would certainly be a good thing for the Russian people.
The 1989 revolutions are somewhat different, because they were triggered by the colapse of the USSR, so to some extent a peaceful transfer of power happened. Except for Romania, Moldova and Ukraine who is now paying the price for refusing to become the other Belarus. The collapse of the USSR ultimately led to Putin the wars in Chechhnya, Georgia and Ukraine.