Hacker News Reader

Comment by jebarker | Hacker News Reader

I know these are just spit-balled numbers but getting to $25M in 10 years even with $2M annual comp would require pretty risky investment I think. Assuming you spent $300K per year and paid US taxes you’d have about $900K left over. 7% average returns would mean you’d have about $13M saved after 10 years. Getting more than 7% on the whole portfolio is going to require significant risk.

View on HN

Fair enough--I didn't do the math. Looks like you'd hit $25M after 15 years or so. And I grant that 7% is aggressive.

Still, if you reach staff-level at 40 years old, you could have $25M at 55. That's pretty amazing. But that requires lots of luck. Most people never make it to staff-level. I never did.

It is incredible. Sustaining 15 years at staff level will cost you a lot in other ways though!

Yup! Depends on the company and the person, of course.

Another thing: People at FAANGs usually ride the stock up and get way more than 7% per year. I'm embarrassed to say that I sold a lot of MSFT stock at $30 in 2011. Today (~15 years later) it is trading at $530.

Never be embarrassed about diversification. In 2012 Microsoft could have been found to be cooking the books and $30 would be a lot. Or they could have hit a hard patch, lost stock value and laid you off and you'd be out income and savings.

You're right about that! Remember that in 2011, Microsoft was considered a zombie-company. No one expected it to grow in value.

Most helpful way I know to think about this is: if you’d been given that stock as cash would you have bought the stock. Breaks the cognitive bias of already holding the stock.

Sustaining 15 years at staff level is near-impossible and will extract a heavy toll for the vast majority of people. Plus at 55? Not saying you'll be dinged purely for your age but it's not like it has no influence ...

That’s not at all what I’ve seen. If someone’s properly leveled at Staff, it tends to be a bit easier to sustain than Senior in the same company, but you do have to be selective about new roles at new companies. Age shouldn’t be an issue for someone with Staff+ skills except in the most dysfunctional, unprofitable companies.

Hindsight is perfect in stock markets,but with 100k in initial investment in 2010 in VUG, and a 40k/mo recurring investment until now (little more than half the savings), it would be worth 33M+ now.

Obviously this means one has to be earning that much for 15+ years.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com