Which it to say, if models eventually do useful work, demand for substrate will continue to outpace production. I don’t envy the fabs that have to forecast how much memory the world will desire in 2030
If ML + robots can be produced for fewer resources than it takes to feed and house a human, then no reasonable amount of human labour will be sufficient to pay for robots+compute.
We may have a bust, with broad overcapacity and cheap, distributed ML compute. We may have the paperclip problem, where datacenters and fabs are taking over all reasonable resources and humans squeezed out. We may have everything in between.
I've heard 2040 (note this is not 2030), 2029, and 2027 for 'back to normal', 'new production online', and 'potentially a lower demand will be seen and still not enough supply', respectively. All hearsay from me reading news headlines.
Global inflation and f&&&ing Dump will impact all this ofc.