How?
1. jobs being automated implies companies can do way more with fewer workers
2. this means they have extra profit that they can push somewhere
3. they will push it again to capital by finding new ventures to scale out
4. for achieving (3) they need labour pool, which is where we come in
Few open questions
- What kind of new ventures? Colonising Mars is an example, but ambition is unlimited
- Will companies choose to scale out or just eat profits? I think they will scale out due to ideology and market dynamics
- Biggest question: can humans still provide value in some dimension where AI can't? I don't know..
"Can humans do any single thing better than AI"
If its true then companies will scale out just enough that it requires 40 hours per week of our labour.
> I agree that companies will scale out, but all signs point to them scaling out their token spend rather than hiring
I disagree. My question back to you is, if you were a company, why would you not scale out to have as many humans as possible? You'd do it because if you don't, your competitors have an advantage over you
The average engineer is... average. I have watched the frontier models raise the bar for hiring quite high over the last year, to the point where it becomes a real question whether most companies will need more than one strong employee per job function in the next few years.
The way processes are shifting, the companies with the most staff are the most likely to be outcompeted by smaller teams leveraging agentic development. I suspect we haven't seen anything close to the worst of layoffs at large corporations yet. The limiting factor is that it takes a while for a massive ship to turn, but inertia will only go so far.
As for what humans can do better than AI, there's one thing: assume liability. Lately, however, it seems that no one with the power to do so is particularly concerned about holding anyone accountable for AI-driven mistakes.
I wish I could justify your optimism, as I expect life to deteriorate materially for the typical member of the working class in countries without strong safety nets. But I just don't see it leading to more hiring when even the current frontier models are more capable across most dimensions than the average white-collar worker.