Make Github Actions a paid-tier exclusive and this problem goes away.
GitHub are too scared to do that after the backlash around charging people for their own runners, but this would be a very different thing, simply stop giving free actions to people who have never paid them a penny.
I had no idea they charged you to run your own runner. I am immediately of the opinion that is wrong.
Conversely, I would have no issues if GHA become a premium product. Or maybe "your actions only run when we have spare compute". I've personally given Github money (back when private repos cost $$) and wouldn't be concerned about doing it again.
That is to say, I think you've nailed it.
This is a real problem for acquiring customers. CI/CD / Actions in general has a low initial perceived value and a high perceived value after use while being primarily a commodity product (serverless compute). To acquire customers they need to offer a free tier, to make money they need to charge their heavy users more, but because it is a commodity their heavy users will self-host runners or jump ship.
Action minutes is a really good proxy for value gain from cloud git services, where repo count, user count, file count/size, etc isn't.
Its a fun pricing puzzle.
(I know because I recently hit it)
The solution, of course, is not to simply start charging for all actions, because then everyone would wake up to all sorts of mystery charges. They'd need to notify that forked actions would be turned off and then opt-in for paid actions.
My company has heavy handily moved from self-hosted version control system to github and now we’re suffering more outages. Though the self hosted system had less features, and we needed to maintain our own jenkins infrastructure for CI/CD, at least we really only suffered from very major cloud-provider level outages
You said it.
And it is also significantly more difficult to retrifit that design onto a running system than to design it like that from the beginning.
I think removing the free tier altogether would be a bad move, especially given that some important open source projects rely on it. But they could possibly lower some of the limits, especially for new accounts, with a way for open source projects to apply for more, and maybe have an automatic scale up for projects that are more popular, by some metric. And maybe limit the free tier to public repos, and maybe even only repos that use an OSI approved license or something.