If they were benign, why wait till now? Why didn't they say anything when OpenAi first released GPT and Microsoft was the biggest investor? Did something change between then and now?
Yes, the frontier models got vastly more capable, and the compute available to them probably increased by an order of magnitude?
It's not a paradigmatic shift though. It is able to do what it was already doing, but better. You can't really claim there has been a staggering improvement since then and anything that it is doing now is wildly unexpected.
You don't think there's been a paradigm shift or wildly unexpected capabilities since "when OpenAi first released GPT"?
No. Has the underlying technology changed in any way?
Uh, our understanding of it has. Doing automated cyberattacks using novel zero-days, or resolving open math questions, was perhaps one of the many somewhat plausible futures in 2022, but absolutely not an inevitable or even particularly likely one. If you disagree, I’d like to see your analysis and predictions from four years ago, otherwise it’s nothing but hindsight bias.
Ah yes, because white hats aren’t allowed to use AI to find zero days, and solving open math questions is such a horrible thing, why even bother advancing mathematics at all if someone can’t spend ten years and hundreds of thousands of dollars to only get partway there and feel good about themselves? This new understanding definitely makes me want to regulate AI so only the Right People™ can use it, that definitely won’t empower rival nations who lack such regulation and give them an advantage.
Our understanding perhaps. But do you think researchers working on it had a similar understanding?
I'd feel comfortable saying there's no benign reason _Microsoft_ would call for regulation.