I think that's technically correct but misleading here, because these aren't simple yes/no predictions. They are specific, relatively detailed predictions of what will happen.

As an example, let's say you asked the questions:

- Will AI kill everybody by 2026?

- Will AI create FTL travel by 2026?

- Will AI be able to travel back in time by 2026?

- Will AI colonize Mars by 2026?

...and then flipped a coin.

Flipping a coin would say "yes" to two of them, so you'd make these two predictions. But obviously, these were all bad predictions, so you'd actually end up with a 0% win ratio.

Making detailed, specific long-term predictions and getting a 50% hit ratio means your predictions were reasonably good to begin with, since making speculative long-term predictions is incredibly difficult.