Whats in data centers is already covered with a good deal of well designed cryptography - you can't steal a model from a data center running inference, and I don't think you can easily steal the checkpoints during the training.

I'd think the biggest risk is with the priviledged insiders who do get access to real raw weights and can handle them themselves. Those are real people handling billions of value which can be easily copied -- I am sure they are potential targets of serious blackmail, extortion and of course bribery. And it takes literally just one such person being successfully coerced to exfil a 10T-class model to leapfrog adversaries capabilities -- esp. as those models approach RSI capabilities. I think it is bound to happen given the incentives.