An Nasdaq would not materially exceed until 2016.
Yes, this ignores dividends, but that really only helps manage inflation.
You would have done much better being out of the stock market until the 2009 crash.
For what it's worth, the S&P dividend yield is typically 1-2%, and below inflation for the majority of relevant years. So you are not ahead in real dollars until roughly the dates I mentioned.
It’s the total returns that matter, not just stock price.
When the stock market slumps like that, continual investment lowers your average cost basis.
e.g.:
Year 1: Buy 1 stock at $100
Year 2: Buy 1 stock at $50 (post-crash)
Year 3: Buy 1 stock at $60
Year 4: Buy 1 stock at $70
Year 5: Buy 1 stock at $80
If we just look at "Year 1 = $100, Year 5 = $80" then it looks like we lost $20/share.
However, our average cost basis is $72, so we actually made $8 per share.
That’s not really a great return but it’s not horrible considering the circumstances.
Honestly we only just started to get back into the swing of things from 2012-2016 when Obama's reelection provided enough market confidence for electric cars to reach MVP status in 2013 and solar panels to begin scaling until Trump slapped a 30% tariff on them in 2018. Progress in sustainability is my litmus test for the economic viability of getting real work done in the economy, sort of like grading a steakhouse on how good its least-ordered mushroom appetizer tastes. We could also choose healthcare, education or any other field whose success is determined by the social good it provides.
If it weren't for the arrival of AI, I'd call this a wasted quarter century.