> When I click an item on Amazon and it says "arrives by Tuesday" then 95/100 times it does

2% for me in the last 6 months (1/51 orders). I live in San Francisco not some remote location. I’ve had 3 orders where the estimate up until purchase was “arriving today” get delayed by 2+ days. And Amazon support is one of the worst at actually doing the thing they said they’d do.

So I’ve got a refund on my Prime membership for this year and won’t be renewing next because I’m in exactly the situation you say you won’t want to deal with.